{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d68ea125-31f8-4341-85b1-0b81e909b2ea", "symbol": "605580", "name": "Hengsheng Energy Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.318, "architecture_energy": 75.268, "architecture_maturity": 18.871, "architecture_confidence": 81.198, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.59, "rotation_up": 10.8, "upward_expansion": 19.2, "deceleration": 34.28, "rotation_down": 75.18, "downward_expansion": 90.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.407334, 19.978546, 21.750902, 22.087225 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.450001, "trend_reference": 22.662815, "distance_from_trend": -0.185891, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.202562, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213611, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.956691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227204, "excess_performance": -0.184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185891, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158939, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269567, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170123, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227204, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.807686, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28447322, "relative_activity": 0.874585, "balance": 0.807686, "dry_up": 1.034681, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193135, "annualized_volatility": 0.779279, "from_high_reference": -0.585438, "from_low_reference": 0.232465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.662815, "fair_value_reference": 15.202562, "structural_low": 14.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.02736, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.005454, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.174039, "worst_return": -0.057279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.181956, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.112038, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.298573, "worst_return": 0.088154, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.134377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033074, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.294858, "worst_return": -0.026103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -19.688664, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.343176, "energy": 9.140281, "activity_lines": [ 24.468667, 24.978624, 23.953722, 23.751193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.92, "volume": 36505982, "typical_volume": 31782411.2, "trend": 23.645607, "fair_value": 15.116278, "relative_strength": -29.749064, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.625891, "energy": 34.149658, "activity_lines": [ 21.766667, 23.569203, 23.345029, 23.278613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.93, "volume": 38856376, "typical_volume": 32369991.0, "trend": 23.089372, "fair_value": 15.129743, "relative_strength": -34.747902, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.188045, "energy": 58.809204, "activity_lines": [ 19.330667, 22.077275, 22.677427, 22.780832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.68, "volume": 30809264, "typical_volume": 32161715.4, "trend": 22.79154, "fair_value": 15.156683, "relative_strength": -32.029609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.042112, "energy": 75.481105, "activity_lines": [ 17.684667, 20.819939, 22.115599, 22.367324 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.450001, "volume": 28447322, "typical_volume": 32526662.7, "trend": 22.662815, "fair_value": 15.202562, "relative_strength": -26.956691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.317648, "energy": 75.268025, "activity_lines": [ 17.407334, 19.978546, 21.750902, 22.087225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }