{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d690e375-7c33-4078-8fe7-7cf5e3b6bfca", "symbol": "SAMART", "name": "Samart Corporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.649, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.865, "architecture_energy": 17.558, "architecture_maturity": 26.417, "architecture_confidence": 58.189, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.63, "rotation_up": 44.56, "upward_expansion": 41.43, "deceleration": 28.0, "rotation_down": 23.1, "downward_expansion": 18.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.716667, 5.658182, 5.623095, 5.626304 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.7, "trend_reference": 5.670467, "distance_from_trend": 0.005208, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.836448, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.737021, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048963, "excess_performance": -0.241288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005208, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010549, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014585, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048963, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.632977, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9415900, "relative_activity": 1.640305, "balance": 0.632977, "dry_up": 1.844762, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061404, "annualized_volatility": 0.379168, "from_high_reference": -0.127033, "from_low_reference": 0.169776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.670467, "fair_value_reference": 5.836448, "structural_low": 4.98, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.015504, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.000993, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.132231, "worst_return": -0.205883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.055118, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.039302, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.182353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049712, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.124821, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.276471, 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146342, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094891, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054264, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": 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"volume": 13195800, "typical_volume": 5024705.0, "trend": 5.623509, "fair_value": 5.835439, "relative_strength": -16.450467, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.129728, "energy": 14.424098, "activity_lines": [ 5.56, 5.606364, 5.569836, 5.610414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.65, "volume": 12740900, "typical_volume": 5193145.0, "trend": 5.633176, "fair_value": 5.834756, "relative_strength": -17.44752, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.581489, "energy": 12.290785, "activity_lines": [ 5.596667, 5.608182, 5.576285, 5.612123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.55, "volume": 6687400, "typical_volume": 5048520.0, "trend": 5.639509, "fair_value": 5.835277, "relative_strength": -18.497503, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.401626, "energy": 12.152645, "activity_lines": [ 5.593333, 5.593636, 5.576702, 5.606757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.9, "volume": 13514000, "typical_volume": 5552880.0, "trend": 5.657509, "fair_value": 5.834351, "relative_strength": -11.899507, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.602089, "energy": 17.018618, "activity_lines": [ 5.706667, 5.646364, 5.610476, 5.623563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.7, "volume": 9415900, "typical_volume": 5740335.0, "trend": 5.670467, "fair_value": 5.836448, "relative_strength": -13.737021, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.864915, "energy": 17.557731, "activity_lines": [ 5.716667, 5.658182, 5.623095, 5.626304 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }