{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6927a6c-d006-4b70-94f8-239c10b21d89", "symbol": "BLX", "name": "Boralex Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.374, "architecture_energy": 73.024, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.264, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 62.54, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.83, "rotation_down": 30.0, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.096667, 37.030364, 36.907205, 35.689697 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 37.200001, "trend_reference": 33.435342, "distance_from_trend": 0.112595, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.945972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.770188, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.381569, "excess_performance": 0.261147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112595, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130278, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007417, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087702, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028706, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.381569, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.234266, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1758000, "relative_activity": 0.585564, "balance": 2.234266, "dry_up": 0.604441, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005589, "annualized_volatility": 0.376692, "from_high_reference": -0.000806, "from_low_reference": 0.601043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.435342, "fair_value_reference": 29.945972, "structural_low": 26.045208, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.002983, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.015999, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.083489, "worst_return": -0.1133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.11085, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.113461, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.122703, "worst_return": -0.167922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.18243, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.263581, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.04618, "worst_return": -0.341475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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29.837677, "relative_strength": 11.193569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.321325, "energy": 68.5376, "activity_lines": [ 37.024666, 36.94828, 36.706186, 35.138266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.080002, "volume": 1589500, "typical_volume": 3035305.0, "trend": 33.05263, "fair_value": 29.887326, "relative_strength": 11.976931, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.944084, "energy": 70.483407, "activity_lines": [ 37.044, 36.981636, 36.825339, 35.422125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.200001, "volume": 1758000, "typical_volume": 3002235.0, "trend": 33.435342, "fair_value": 29.945972, "relative_strength": 8.770188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.373859, "energy": 73.023772, "activity_lines": [ 37.096667, 37.030364, 36.907205, 35.689697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }