{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d693be88-aa9f-4297-a00c-8445b91ffd8a", "symbol": "WINE", "name": "Naked Wines plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.259, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.23, "architecture_energy": 8.258, "architecture_maturity": 66.289, "architecture_confidence": 71.822, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.94, "rotation_up": 25.72, "upward_expansion": 26.24, "deceleration": 42.06, "rotation_down": 30.22, "downward_expansion": 48.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.727467, 0.723309, 0.727762, 0.727578 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.734, "trend_reference": 0.7292, "distance_from_trend": 0.006583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.646244, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135795, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.48751, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021333, "excess_performance": -0.072569, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000137, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03221, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007117, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.780524, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186018, "relative_activity": 0.737905, "balance": 0.780524, "dry_up": 0.788785, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057811, "annualized_volatility": 0.274691, "from_high_reference": -0.212446, "from_low_reference": 0.187702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7292, "fair_value_reference": 0.646244, "structural_low": 0.618, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.029178, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.32, "median_excess_return": -0.038592, "regime_survival": 0.64, "best_return": 0.502868, "worst_return": -0.229873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.107806, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.135032, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.321008, "worst_return": -0.353982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.242175, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.266229, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.495798, "worst_return": -0.417373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 0.646128, "relative_strength": -6.886787, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.629483, "energy": 14.803829, "activity_lines": [ 0.7212, 0.722945, 0.727352, 0.727817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.722, "volume": 204417, "typical_volume": 269519.15, "trend": 0.7298, "fair_value": 0.646077, "relative_strength": -11.054799, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.879617, "energy": 15.10163, "activity_lines": [ 0.723067, 0.721745, 0.727086, 0.727308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.734, "volume": 186018, "typical_volume": 252089.3, "trend": 0.7292, "fair_value": 0.646244, "relative_strength": -9.48751, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.229991, "energy": 8.258066, "activity_lines": [ 0.727467, 0.723309, 0.727762, 0.727578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }