{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6a1d0c9-c358-4835-9250-c8180665d0f8", "symbol": "002993", "name": "Dongguan Aohai Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.95, "architecture_energy": 68.266, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.542, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.76, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 30.14, "deceleration": 49.49, "rotation_down": 76.05, "downward_expansion": 59.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.672667, 47.553092, 52.85525, 52.513665 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.27, "trend_reference": 51.565535, "distance_from_trend": -0.257838, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.118587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003972, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.067419, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.212725, "excess_performance": -0.220125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.257838, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074828, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003972, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424313, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185394, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212725, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.717173, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34290870, "relative_activity": 1.023778, "balance": 0.717173, "dry_up": 1.257263, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222588, "annualized_volatility": 0.705632, "from_high_reference": -0.480733, "from_low_reference": 0.158995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.565535, "fair_value_reference": 38.118587, "structural_low": 33.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055706, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.005075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113826, "worst_return": -0.196496, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.131814, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189626, "worst_return": 0.12178, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.377031, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.094271, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.612841, "worst_return": 0.024789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081678, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064425, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053107, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074354, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.228565, "energy": 43.130317, "activity_lines": [ 47.990001, 55.511438, 56.2695, 54.523927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.360001, "volume": 38766733, "typical_volume": 33668716.15, "trend": 51.73382, "fair_value": 38.085016, "relative_strength": -27.522922, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.934199, "energy": 54.482368, "activity_lines": [ 41.578668, 50.874546, 54.345463, 53.382299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.27, "volume": 34290870, "typical_volume": 33494442.5, "trend": 51.565535, "fair_value": 38.118587, "relative_strength": -23.067419, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.949644, "energy": 68.265698, "activity_lines": [ 38.672667, 47.553092, 52.85525, 52.513665 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }