{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6a743a3-e1ac-4121-9da4-89bc8e1a4bbc", "symbol": "002929", "name": "Runjian Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.114, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.569, "architecture_energy": 39.947, "architecture_maturity": 2.742, "architecture_confidence": 61.199, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.96, "rotation_up": 17.76, "upward_expansion": 24.14, "deceleration": 49.78, "rotation_down": 62.1, "downward_expansion": 49.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.850549, 56.28854, 61.578779, 60.268661 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 57.91, "trend_reference": 57.378046, "distance_from_trend": 0.009271, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.490298, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.588481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.246985, "excess_performance": 0.239586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009271, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116058, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362899, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.568404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085885, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.246985, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.595837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94654753, "relative_activity": 1.057853, "balance": 0.595837, "dry_up": 0.935443, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208771, "annualized_volatility": 0.791502, "from_high_reference": -0.421421, "from_low_reference": 0.523547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.378046, "fair_value_reference": 42.490298, "structural_low": 43.139999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033661, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.164587, "worst_return": -0.117721, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.052882, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13087, "worst_return": -0.09491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022912, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.141438, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141397, "worst_return": -0.169748, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.900002, "volume": 90093073, "typical_volume": 91315671.15, "trend": 56.494713, "fair_value": 42.310611, "relative_strength": -3.083107, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.559585, "energy": 24.183773, "activity_lines": [ 55.655036, 59.592226, 63.241792, 60.745398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.970001, "volume": 65272544, "typical_volume": 88944795.3, "trend": 56.774713, "fair_value": 42.361342, "relative_strength": -5.195606, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.666058, "energy": 38.881848, "activity_lines": [ 52.100944, 56.706201, 61.931642, 60.195417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.91, "volume": 94654753, "typical_volume": 89478134.85, "trend": 57.378046, "fair_value": 42.490298, "relative_strength": 8.588481, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.569169, "energy": 39.947296, "activity_lines": [ 52.850549, 56.28854, 61.578779, 60.268661 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }