{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6aa1161-9dae-428b-93a8-d8280417de6f", "symbol": "LRCX", "name": "Lam Research Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.215, "architecture_energy": 31.482, "architecture_maturity": 66.611, "architecture_confidence": 89.903, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.37, "rotation_up": 20.01, "upward_expansion": 55.77, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 43.7, "downward_expansion": 21.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 5378.549349, 5768.014608, 5648.924076, 5311.888167 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5336.0, "trend_reference": 4872.421107, "distance_from_trend": 0.095143, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2321.683573, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.298332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 34.791043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.350974, "excess_performance": 0.40564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095143, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.298332, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347584, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.34791, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.265367, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.350974, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.531596, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27097, "relative_activity": 2.677635, "balance": 0.531596, "dry_up": 1.616122, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105045, "annualized_volatility": 0.511629, "from_high_reference": -0.218967, "from_low_reference": 1.948836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4872.421107, "fair_value_reference": 2321.683573, "structural_low": 3585.120117, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.038867, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.000822, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.215915, "worst_return": -0.107639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.105851, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.095034, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.725364, "worst_return": -0.228447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085684, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.106408, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.506053, "worst_return": -0.229917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032776, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096423, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170378, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170213, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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6025.986001, 5642.180864, 5249.411982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5204.0, "volume": 23587, "typical_volume": 9124.7, "trend": 4821.212896, "fair_value": 2295.086259, "relative_strength": 33.504175, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.150798, "energy": 29.913155, "activity_lines": [ 5531.365365, 5883.745395, 5642.751304, 5278.676096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5336.0, "volume": 27097, "typical_volume": 10119.75, "trend": 4872.421107, "fair_value": 2321.683573, "relative_strength": 34.791043, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.215185, "energy": 31.482314, "activity_lines": [ 5378.549349, 5768.014608, 5648.924076, 5311.888167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }