{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6af6458-2b02-4fbe-b378-e23dc04f8ea0", "symbol": "MHC-UN", "name": "Flagship Communities Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.696, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.86, "architecture_energy": 43.677, "architecture_maturity": 62.243, "architecture_confidence": 46.196, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.55, "rotation_up": 42.47, "upward_expansion": 66.14, "deceleration": 68.28, "rotation_down": 25.22, "downward_expansion": 18.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.635333, 29.675273, 28.739762, 28.185613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.76, "trend_reference": 27.652667, "distance_from_trend": 0.040044, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.109979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244484, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.972164, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057353, "excess_performance": -0.063068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040044, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04212, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073406, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053117, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.994971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7718, "relative_activity": 0.817464, "balance": 0.994971, "dry_up": 1.454286, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035412, "annualized_volatility": 0.171724, "from_high_reference": -0.081444, "from_low_reference": 0.17101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.652667, "fair_value_reference": 23.109979, "structural_low": 25.360001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.018356, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.030634, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.148648, "worst_return": -0.092715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0332, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.066404, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.095806, "worst_return": -0.074434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.054757, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.069224, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.161474, "worst_return": -0.136619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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300, "typical_volume": 10231.1, "trend": 27.129333, "fair_value": 22.818327, "relative_strength": 3.266602, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.880955, "energy": 95.219483, "activity_lines": [ 29.577334, 28.570182, 27.675857, 27.42086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.83, "volume": 6502, "typical_volume": 10489.55, "trend": 27.292333, "fair_value": 22.881714, "relative_strength": 0.849773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.176381, "energy": 88.263023, "activity_lines": [ 29.853334, 28.935636, 27.923286, 27.595097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.700001, "volume": 5502, "typical_volume": 10431.6, "trend": 27.382333, "fair_value": 22.939702, "relative_strength": 0.781868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.809189, "energy": 87.629857, "activity_lines": [ 29.946, 29.207455, 28.146286, 27.75043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.5, "volume": 14958, "typical_volume": 8903.3, "trend": 27.524667, "fair_value": 23.001674, "relative_strength": 3.266526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.503555, "energy": 88.723111, "activity_lines": [ 30.158667, 29.562, 28.431667, 27.95157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.0, "volume": 26744, "typical_volume": 9298.6, "trend": 27.607667, "fair_value": 23.059832, "relative_strength": 2.1155, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.98184, "energy": 59.74571, "activity_lines": [ 30.088667, 29.761455, 28.652191, 28.111269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.76, "volume": 7718, "typical_volume": 9441.4, "trend": 27.652667, "fair_value": 23.109979, "relative_strength": -4.972164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.859588, "energy": 43.676954, "activity_lines": [ 29.635333, 29.675273, 28.739762, 28.185613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }