{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6b88929-2900-4857-aa96-6ed6b1b036c8", "symbol": "UFEB", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - February", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.893, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.985, "architecture_energy": 76.825, "architecture_maturity": 39.618, "architecture_confidence": 81.27, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.08, "rotation_up": 66.41, "upward_expansion": 90.83, "deceleration": 48.69, "rotation_down": 23.82, "downward_expansion": 15.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.959173, 38.799189, 38.559734, 38.188834 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 39.31, "trend_reference": 37.76396, "distance_from_trend": 0.04094, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.290279, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180825, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.293099, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.05672, "excess_performance": -0.068904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04094, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02029, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180825, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00164, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05672, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.932555, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137986, "relative_activity": 1.191416, "balance": 2.932555, "dry_up": 0.92577, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009105, "annualized_volatility": 0.058496, "from_high_reference": -0.000582, "from_low_reference": 0.128602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.76396, "fair_value_reference": 33.290279, "structural_low": 35.7683, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.007989, "positive_rate": 0.829268, "directional_follow_through": 0.829268, "median_excess_return": -0.004116, "regime_survival": 0.829268, "best_return": 0.025841, "worst_return": -0.037227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.023847, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.018588, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.054265, "worst_return": -0.036146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036824, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.024571, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.082926, "worst_return": -0.014551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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38.610116, 38.340105, 37.999938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.92, "volume": 75173, "typical_volume": 114920.7, "trend": 37.686287, "fair_value": 33.217522, "relative_strength": -3.096863, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.560149, "energy": 69.274972, "activity_lines": [ 38.772287, 38.673336, 38.437134, 38.084079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.31, "volume": 137986, "typical_volume": 115816.85, "trend": 37.76396, "fair_value": 33.290279, "relative_strength": -5.293099, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.985013, "energy": 76.824804, "activity_lines": [ 38.959173, 38.799189, 38.559734, 38.188834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }