{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6bbb182-534f-499d-ad46-7e39a3491ecc", "symbol": "COLPAL", "name": "Colgate-Palmolive (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.566, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.198, "architecture_energy": 10.886, "architecture_maturity": 27.185, "architecture_confidence": 87.622, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.74, "rotation_up": 25.4, "upward_expansion": 30.67, "deceleration": 38.99, "rotation_down": 29.83, "downward_expansion": 41.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2055.83335, 2047.543646, 2053.203331, 2051.686779 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2030.0, "trend_reference": 2064.221175, "distance_from_trend": -0.016578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2422.327749, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161963, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.634199, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048378, "excess_performance": -0.004669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016578, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015253, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161963, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057536, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048378, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.23189, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1818519, "relative_activity": 1.156912, "balance": 0.23189, "dry_up": 1.248181, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044556, "annualized_volatility": 0.286734, "from_high_reference": -0.180529, "from_low_reference": 0.152598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2064.221175, "fair_value_reference": 2422.327749, "structural_low": 1761.237851, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.009503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035647, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.055115, "worst_return": -0.137313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03173, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.017947, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200812, "worst_return": -0.19047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.034586, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029746, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.339745, 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advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.409208, "energy": 11.026774, "activity_lines": [ 2056.286686, 2044.652186, 2048.954143, 2053.476823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2073.0, "volume": 3318512, "typical_volume": 1556975.0, "trend": 2065.087842, "fair_value": 2421.243425, "relative_strength": -0.993845, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.617254, "energy": 7.282578, "activity_lines": [ 2065.893351, 2049.472736, 2053.402071, 2053.950511 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2030.0, "volume": 1818519, "typical_volume": 1571873.8, "trend": 2064.221175, "fair_value": 2422.327749, "relative_strength": -3.634199, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.19819, "energy": 10.885515, "activity_lines": [ 2055.83335, 2047.543646, 2053.203331, 2051.686779 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }