{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6bd6437-7d40-42c2-8a6c-68abd69fd063", "symbol": "INDA", "name": "iShares MSCI India ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.891, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -6.11, "architecture_energy": 5.424, "architecture_maturity": 18.388, "architecture_confidence": 56.878, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.07, "rotation_up": 28.28, "upward_expansion": 31.37, "deceleration": 37.76, "rotation_down": 27.77, "downward_expansion": 46.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 857.307337, 857.182002, 853.647668, 856.641571 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 862.51001, "trend_reference": 866.388334, "distance_from_trend": -0.004476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 947.252145, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089461, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.192101, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060447, "excess_performance": -0.00578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047194, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089461, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001872, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119758, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060447, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.863271, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 946, "relative_activity": 0.03553, "balance": 1.863271, "dry_up": 0.308949, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022391, "annualized_volatility": 0.128364, "from_high_reference": -0.162612, "from_low_reference": 0.055407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 866.388334, "fair_value_reference": 947.252145, "structural_low": 817.22998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.006853, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.032816, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.042363, "worst_return": -0.03234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024585, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070255, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.075297, "worst_return": -0.122942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.073038, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.170519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102213, "worst_return": -0.166, "sufficient": 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869.508, "fair_value": 946.484357, "relative_strength": -8.657017, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.192409, "energy": 6.004592, "activity_lines": [ 855.565332, 855.245274, 852.537668, 857.093054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 862.51001, "volume": 946, "typical_volume": 26625.75, "trend": 866.388334, "fair_value": 947.252145, "relative_strength": -8.192101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.110257, "energy": 5.423814, "activity_lines": [ 857.307337, 857.182002, 853.647668, 856.641571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }