{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6c57b58-7d35-4917-a81b-77a6209d2fe4", "symbol": "UC98", "name": "UBS BBG MSCI US Liquid Corp Sustainable UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.492, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.794, "architecture_energy": 66.939, "architecture_maturity": 3.169, "architecture_confidence": 75.428, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.78, "rotation_up": 8.19, "upward_expansion": 12.64, "deceleration": 39.25, "rotation_down": 77.32, "downward_expansion": 88.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1094.633333, 1103.472727, 1105.728571, 1106.738935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1092.75, "trend_reference": 1108.954647, "distance_from_trend": -0.014613, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1148.4396, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048492, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.516227, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020864, "excess_performance": -0.0721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014613, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008185, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048492, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003883, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105162, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020864, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.608322, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2151, "relative_activity": 0.314563, "balance": 0.608322, "dry_up": 0.309226, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010858, "annualized_volatility": 0.065554, "from_high_reference": -0.281684, "from_low_reference": 0.004366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1108.954647, "fair_value_reference": 1148.4396, "structural_low": 1088.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.002751, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.001949, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.058551, "worst_return": -0.037834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008939, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.022021, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.058942, "worst_return": -0.052317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021017, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010777, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.025315, "worst_return": -0.024108, 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"relative_strength": -8.285026, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.820379, "energy": 11.293645, "activity_lines": [ 1111.416667, 1113.313636, 1109.861905, 1110.183812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1099.5, "volume": 1379, "typical_volume": 6746.25, "trend": 1111.348531, "fair_value": 1149.086423, "relative_strength": -9.256774, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.225858, "energy": 37.444265, "activity_lines": [ 1105.566667, 1110.968182, 1108.95119, 1109.374156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1088.0, "volume": 2718, "typical_volume": 6768.7, "trend": 1110.247388, "fair_value": 1148.742986, "relative_strength": -10.948989, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.759972, "energy": 55.189143, "activity_lines": [ 1097.75, 1106.672727, 1107.057143, 1107.867799 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1092.75, "volume": 2151, "typical_volume": 6838.05, "trend": 1108.954647, "fair_value": 1148.4396, "relative_strength": -10.516227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.793721, "energy": 66.938585, "activity_lines": [ 1094.633333, 1103.472727, 1105.728571, 1106.738935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }