{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6c95022-7279-480f-97fd-8d43decbbffc", "symbol": "TBCH", "name": "Turtle Beach Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 68.283, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.296, "architecture_energy": 27.451, "architecture_maturity": 21.977, "architecture_confidence": 62.089, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.24, "rotation_up": 43.83, "upward_expansion": 73.01, "deceleration": 60.31, "rotation_down": 23.71, "downward_expansion": 4.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.915333, 12.853273, 12.576667, 12.350989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.95, "trend_reference": 12.243667, "distance_from_trend": 0.139365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.600737, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02568, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.296981, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.155758, "excess_performance": -0.031696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139365, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031074, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154654, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.155758, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.098915, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2542846, "relative_activity": 1.770676, "balance": 2.098915, "dry_up": 1.076672, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109952, "annualized_volatility": 0.541046, "from_high_reference": -0.197672, "from_low_reference": 0.417669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.243667, "fair_value_reference": 13.600737, "structural_low": 9.8401, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.014898, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.01159, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.213642, "worst_return": -0.208477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.058168, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.006549, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.505457, "worst_return": -0.18082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007779, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.152683, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.289136, "worst_return": -0.343235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.074616, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.290132, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.348131, "worst_return": -0.743623, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.278159, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012812, "active": false 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"close": 12.84, "volume": 868200, "typical_volume": 1458653.9, "trend": 12.374, "fair_value": 13.556346, "relative_strength": -18.882669, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.08839, "energy": 16.668614, "activity_lines": [ 12.828667, 12.773273, 12.281476, 12.220495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.01, "volume": 1339694, "typical_volume": 1458795.95, "trend": 12.351, "fair_value": 13.57359, "relative_strength": -13.89421, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.619715, "energy": 9.653323, "activity_lines": [ 12.842, 12.849273, 12.372381, 12.261527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.04, "volume": 1181103, "typical_volume": 1477625.25, "trend": 12.280667, "fair_value": 13.581987, "relative_strength": -18.431566, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.152715, "energy": 4.561897, "activity_lines": [ 12.550667, 12.735818, 12.368667, 12.241462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.25, "volume": 1121137, "typical_volume": 1417669.3, "trend": 12.221667, "fair_value": 13.58859, "relative_strength": -16.902111, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.45605, "energy": 14.152668, "activity_lines": [ 12.444667, 12.638727, 12.389286, 12.239484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.95, "volume": 2542846, "typical_volume": 1436087.3, "trend": 12.243667, "fair_value": 13.600737, "relative_strength": -9.296981, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.295557, "energy": 27.450828, "activity_lines": [ 12.915333, 12.853273, 12.576667, 12.350989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }