{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6cd4a73-7799-4532-a306-5aa22cd02b9c", "symbol": "NVAX", "name": "Novavax, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.986, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.273, "architecture_energy": 70.255, "architecture_maturity": 17.017, "architecture_confidence": 84.104, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.93, "rotation_up": 10.96, "upward_expansion": 17.95, "deceleration": 34.38, "rotation_down": 70.18, "downward_expansion": 86.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.796667, 7.237455, 7.567448, 7.655265 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.84, "trend_reference": 7.708933, "distance_from_trend": -0.112718, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.297299, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062667, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.022163, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006623, "excess_performance": -0.167624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062667, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298717, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230222, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006623, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10551, "relative_activity": 2.762837, "balance": 0.675197, "dry_up": 1.2264, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112011, "annualized_volatility": 0.658474, "from_high_reference": -0.307692, "from_low_reference": 0.265261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.708933, "fair_value_reference": 7.297299, "structural_low": 6.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.10441, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.081352, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.259155, "worst_return": -0.050336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.11831, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.002856, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11831, "worst_return": 0.11831, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.298592, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064782, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040673, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 12.37, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, 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"activity_lines": [ 8.084, 8.169091, 7.981514, 7.862817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.94, "volume": 4132, "typical_volume": 8878.75, "trend": 7.613167, "fair_value": 7.320516, "relative_strength": -10.076448, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.151191, "energy": 13.484378, "activity_lines": [ 8.033333, 8.135273, 7.97889, 7.889019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.13, "volume": 1023, "typical_volume": 7968.2, "trend": 7.656967, "fair_value": 7.318489, "relative_strength": -17.474141, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.435341, "energy": 9.254379, "activity_lines": [ 7.749333, 7.937091, 7.899143, 7.857847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.69, "volume": 3588, "typical_volume": 6017.45, "trend": 7.686467, "fair_value": 7.311874, "relative_strength": -23.275143, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.729294, "energy": 34.634347, "activity_lines": [ 7.366, 7.691818, 7.784624, 7.795462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.37, "volume": 3572, "typical_volume": 4300.7, "trend": 7.6966, "fair_value": 7.302063, "relative_strength": -26.692163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.413737, "energy": 56.957141, "activity_lines": [ 6.957333, 7.408545, 7.647643, 7.710529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.84, "volume": 10551, "typical_volume": 3818.9, "trend": 7.708933, "fair_value": 7.297299, "relative_strength": -23.022163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.272876, "energy": 70.25483, "activity_lines": [ 6.796667, 7.237455, 7.567448, 7.655265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }