{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6ceb2ac-945b-4777-99fc-4b3a64951312", "symbol": "LONA", "name": "LeonaBio, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.477, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.311, "architecture_energy": 37.937, "architecture_maturity": 4.814, "architecture_confidence": 58.465, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.31, "rotation_up": 18.25, "upward_expansion": 23.63, "deceleration": 49.78, "rotation_down": 58.12, "downward_expansion": 46.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.523333, 7.982, 8.56281, 8.484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.68, "trend_reference": 7.96, "distance_from_trend": -0.035176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.426128, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.381947, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.580795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.676856, "excess_performance": 0.489402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.381947, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090982, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045808, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.576226, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.676856, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.540961, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64213, "relative_activity": 0.381979, "balance": 0.540961, "dry_up": 0.987143, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215833, "annualized_volatility": 1.050973, "from_high_reference": -0.459536, "from_low_reference": 1.178723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.96, "fair_value_reference": 12.426128, "structural_low": 4.21, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.113636, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.162179, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.214998, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.448514, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.323055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.723958, "worst_return": 0.17307, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.756354, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.909048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.756354, "worst_return": -0.756354, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.151528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170984, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.672489, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110887, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136919, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 25.5, "volume": 1271168, "typical_volume": 1140588.5, "trend": 29.411667, "fair_value": 104.922549, "relative_strength": -29.343399, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.150713, "energy": 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"up", "direction": 27.974923, "energy": 15.076421, "activity_lines": [ 9.092667, 9.112727, 9.203905, 8.635849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.22, "volume": 471447, "typical_volume": 239534.75, "trend": 7.928667, "fair_value": 12.843244, "relative_strength": 4.208884, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.450035, "energy": 2.849244, "activity_lines": [ 8.539333, 8.720182, 9.042381, 8.590667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.39, "volume": 54646, "typical_volume": 231476.1, "trend": 7.925667, "fair_value": 12.707282, "relative_strength": 7.834295, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.458643, "energy": 15.355331, "activity_lines": [ 8.118, 8.409818, 8.889476, 8.555914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.06, "volume": 73472, "typical_volume": 222556.0, "trend": 7.929, "fair_value": 12.557026, "relative_strength": 1.761657, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.181942, "energy": 36.07638, "activity_lines": [ 7.639333, 8.109818, 8.69519, 8.500065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.68, "volume": 64213, "typical_volume": 168105.9, "trend": 7.96, "fair_value": 12.426128, "relative_strength": 4.580795, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.310638, "energy": 37.936593, "activity_lines": [ 7.523333, 7.982, 8.56281, 8.484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }