{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6d4021e-1586-4bb2-a229-8dfa48da119f", "symbol": "ALPAU", "name": "PAULIC Meunerie SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.287, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.076, "architecture_energy": 44.886, "architecture_maturity": 11.303, "architecture_confidence": 78.198, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.61, "rotation_up": 14.26, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 54.8, "rotation_down": 67.95, "downward_expansion": 48.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.37, 1.447636, 1.496786, 1.47071 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.31, "trend_reference": 1.403, "distance_from_trend": -0.066287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.620615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.706823, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149123, "excess_performance": 0.095811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100536, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102377, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.294995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149123, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.274063, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17911, "relative_activity": 1.694312, "balance": 0.274063, "dry_up": 1.056616, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109806, "annualized_volatility": 0.448934, "from_high_reference": -0.272222, "from_low_reference": 0.336735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.403, "fair_value_reference": 1.620615, "structural_low": 1.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.017036, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.012346, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.164557, "worst_return": -0.264286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.050081, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.070386, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.372807, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.060714, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.031863, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.149123, "worst_return": -0.253906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.185714, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.223443, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.11147, "worst_return": -0.617969, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.377778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188119, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047244, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021459, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022523, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040268, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028986, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090278, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.75, "volume": 4741, "typical_volume": 9165.85, "trend": 2.716, "fair_value": 4.971218, "relative_strength": -1.305678, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.30044, "energy": 23.312249, "activity_lines": [ 1.571333, 1.585909, 1.547238, 1.472699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.42, "volume": 13186, "typical_volume": 14416.95, "trend": 1.376, "fair_value": 1.648853, "relative_strength": 5.23726, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.423366, "energy": 13.389461, "activity_lines": [ 1.517667, 1.555545, 1.540548, 1.47628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.44, "volume": 5262, "typical_volume": 13986.3, "trend": 1.3885, "fair_value": 1.640071, "relative_strength": 6.240427, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.89052, "energy": 11.966214, "activity_lines": [ 1.482667, 1.531455, 1.534286, 1.480409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.325, "volume": 8320, "typical_volume": 10951.35, "trend": 1.396833, "fair_value": 1.630103, "relative_strength": -3.586722, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.479237, "energy": 22.966967, "activity_lines": [ 1.419667, 1.488545, 1.515857, 1.476312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.31, "volume": 17911, "typical_volume": 10571.25, "trend": 1.403, "fair_value": 1.620615, "relative_strength": -6.706823, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.076466, "energy": 44.886409, "activity_lines": [ 1.37, 1.447636, 1.496786, 1.47071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }