{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6d5c165-d84c-4abe-9747-bbae23bae4fe", "symbol": "ABRA", "name": "AbraSilver Resource Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.867, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.345, "architecture_energy": 17.443, "architecture_maturity": 31.85, "architecture_confidence": 73.086, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.66, "rotation_up": 37.87, "upward_expansion": 52.61, "deceleration": 64.71, "rotation_down": 23.53, "downward_expansion": 23.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.007333, 14.714909, 15.23581, 15.009979 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.74, "trend_reference": 14.598667, "distance_from_trend": 0.14668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.969914, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.401751, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 29.763422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.24, "excess_performance": 0.119579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.14668, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136024, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.401751, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.697985, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.297634, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.559641, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.24, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.588484, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3482900, "relative_activity": 1.489367, "balance": 0.588484, "dry_up": 1.225428, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133398, "annualized_volatility": 0.874287, "from_high_reference": -0.158371, "from_low_reference": 2.117318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.598667, "fair_value_reference": 6.969914, "structural_low": 9.86, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.040111, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.028987, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.040111, "worst_return": 0.040111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.490893, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197996, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157676, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 2.53, "volume": 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"relative_strength": 15.968579, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.827376, "energy": 12.308514, "activity_lines": [ 14.197333, 14.666, 15.157333, 14.852753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.04, "volume": 2544300, "typical_volume": 2926105.0, "trend": 14.320667, "fair_value": 6.826228, "relative_strength": 22.824531, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.801656, "energy": 9.194011, "activity_lines": [ 14.484667, 14.623455, 15.181238, 14.908108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.58, "volume": 3096900, "typical_volume": 2912635.0, "trend": 14.420333, "fair_value": 6.884957, "relative_strength": 10.210495, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.791171, "energy": 15.920245, "activity_lines": [ 14.19, 14.353818, 15.059905, 14.860323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.74, "volume": 3482900, "typical_volume": 2338510.0, "trend": 14.598667, "fair_value": 6.969914, "relative_strength": 29.763422, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.344535, "energy": 17.442979, "activity_lines": [ 15.007333, 14.714909, 15.23581, 15.009979 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }