{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d6d707c3-20d7-4ad5-8670-0b037f333a0e",
    "symbol": "XMAW",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI AC World Screened UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 68.074,
    "architecture_energy": 45.764,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.226,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.865,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.41,
        "rotation_up": 40.87,
        "upward_expansion": 61.7,
        "deceleration": 88.31,
        "rotation_down": 27.64,
        "downward_expansion": 23.03
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        4220.838095,
        4138.66129
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 4355.5,
    "trend_reference": 4041.016667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.077823,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3353.386141,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.298836,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.849478,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.131887,
    "excess_performance": 0.080651,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.077823,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037919,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.298836,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01792,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028495,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023904,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.131887,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.273304,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 58378,
      "relative_activity": 1.767587,
      "balance": 1.273304,
      "dry_up": 1.537964,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019005,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.130144,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002633,
      "from_low_reference": 0.241945
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 4041.016667,
      "fair_value_reference": 3353.386141,
      "structural_low": 3643.0,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.00963,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008079,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.070493,
        "worst_return": -0.053916,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.042296,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.00509,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.093281,
        "worst_return": -0.030933,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.072655,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.015929,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.154037,
        "worst_return": -0.009939,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.070705,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001315,
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        "best_return": 0.160641,
        "worst_return": -0.032697,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.087822,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.098853,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01469,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036567,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.089776,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.018413,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "relative_strength": 6.644846,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 532,
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        "fair_value": 3257.591269,
        "relative_strength": 6.043628,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 88.958894,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "trend": 3922.6,
        "fair_value": 3268.081654,
        "relative_strength": 4.736791,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 4.783718,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 2213,
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        "fair_value": 3301.309218,
        "relative_strength": 3.777219,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 64.493116,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 4198.5,
        "volume": 65536,
        "typical_volume": 31319.35,
        "trend": 4000.45,
        "fair_value": 3322.197039,
        "relative_strength": 2.078096,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.635892,
        "energy": 55.20912,
        "activity_lines": [
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          4171.733333,
          4091.606452
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 4222.0,
        "volume": 62923,
        "typical_volume": 32655.85,
        "trend": 4013.683333,
        "fair_value": 3332.174603,
        "relative_strength": 1.313045,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.105485,
        "energy": 48.245774,
        "activity_lines": [
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          4186.62381,
          4105.9
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 4192.0,
        "volume": 16340,
        "typical_volume": 31542.9,
        "trend": 4026.016667,
        "fair_value": 3342.161782,
        "relative_strength": -0.64636,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.632335,
        "energy": 34.479588,
        "activity_lines": [
          4219.6,
          4241.581818,
          4196.914286,
          4117.404301
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 4355.5,
        "volume": 58378,
        "typical_volume": 33026.95,
        "trend": 4041.016667,
        "fair_value": 3353.386141,
        "relative_strength": 2.849478,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.073575,
        "energy": 45.764469,
        "activity_lines": [
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          4138.66129
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}