{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d6da7f98-d548-4407-942b-77560bd29023",
    "symbol": "EQLTD",
    "name": "UBS Factor MSCI EMU Quality Screened UCITS ETF EUR dis",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 94.133,
    "architecture_energy": 94.61,
    "architecture_maturity": 21.675,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.707,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 6.67,
        "rotation_up": 74.87,
        "upward_expansion": 94.02,
        "deceleration": 45.43,
        "rotation_down": 17.81,
        "downward_expansion": 20.69
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        25.273524,
        24.823646
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 26.77,
    "trend_reference": 24.4265,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.095941,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 23.994681,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115664,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.770195,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.108489,
    "excess_performance": 0.025605,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.095941,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022978,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115664,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.106437,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007702,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.033868,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.108489,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.324077,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1760,
      "relative_activity": 2.124449,
      "balance": 2.324077,
      "dry_up": 1.693524,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.012773,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.134044,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.20967
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 24.4265,
      "fair_value_reference": 23.994681,
      "structural_low": 22.129999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": 0.00449,
        "positive_rate": 0.52381,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.52381,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008094,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.101436,
        "worst_return": -0.118693,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.018893,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000392,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.146182,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.045908,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.247086,
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "relative_strength": -5.700434,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -17.102568,
        "energy": 32.737334,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.914334,
          23.529,
          23.681953,
          23.805801
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 24.02,
        "volume": 704,
        "typical_volume": 1377.55,
        "trend": 23.99369,
        "fair_value": 23.800387,
        "relative_strength": -4.157017,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 6.901025,
        "energy": 26.223062,
        "activity_lines": [
          23.994,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 23.665001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1246.1,
        "trend": 23.967857,
        "fair_value": 23.804391,
        "relative_strength": -6.188255,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -10.077399,
        "energy": 15.572258,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 869,
        "typical_volume": 1289.55,
        "trend": 23.884667,
        "fair_value": 23.813353,
        "relative_strength": -5.744028,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.271438,
        "energy": 18.008271,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 1383.95,
        "trend": 23.877834,
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        "relative_strength": -5.451953,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 24.375576,
        "energy": 22.477165,
        "activity_lines": [
          24.085001,
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          23.763096,
          23.830011
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 24.395,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1273.7,
        "trend": 23.891167,
        "fair_value": 23.832363,
        "relative_strength": -3.833314,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.077471,
        "energy": 32.038027,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 24.940001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1273.7,
        "trend": 23.939167,
        "fair_value": 23.841931,
        "relative_strength": -3.763582,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 45.571129,
        "energy": 64.309446,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 25.655001,
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        "typical_volume": 1217.7,
        "trend": 24.012667,
        "fair_value": 23.861575,
        "relative_strength": -1.290687,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.44128,
        "energy": 90.490772,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 25.610001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1180.1,
        "trend": 24.070667,
        "fair_value": 23.875893,
        "relative_strength": -3.992451,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.269257,
        "energy": 93.915156,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.239668,
          24.775092,
          24.262024,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 25.825001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1180.1,
        "trend": 24.128167,
        "fair_value": 23.897841,
        "relative_strength": -4.628506,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.18765,
        "energy": 94.305081,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.520334,
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          24.257979
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 25.73,
        "volume": 1461,
        "typical_volume": 1217.95,
        "trend": 24.184334,
        "fair_value": 23.914688,
        "relative_strength": -3.459971,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.650841,
        "energy": 90.465573,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.668667,
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          24.595477,
          24.361323
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 25.700001,
        "volume": 1708,
        "typical_volume": 1298.35,
        "trend": 24.237834,
        "fair_value": 23.932861,
        "relative_strength": -4.038537,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.384478,
        "energy": 88.376799,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.718001,
          25.376728,
          24.744501,
          24.459108
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 25.725,
        "volume": 1408,
        "typical_volume": 896.25,
        "trend": 24.2915,
        "fair_value": 23.947764,
        "relative_strength": -3.594581,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.87836,
        "energy": 87.108413,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.725,
          25.507364,
          24.889786,
          24.555054
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 26.040001,
        "volume": 736,
        "typical_volume": 740.45,
        "trend": 24.355334,
        "fair_value": 23.969512,
        "relative_strength": -2.328112,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.441093,
        "energy": 87.809324,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.832334,
          25.657819,
          25.054191,
          24.667861
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 26.77,
        "volume": 1760,
        "typical_volume": 828.45,
        "trend": 24.4265,
        "fair_value": 23.994681,
        "relative_strength": -0.770195,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 94.133045,
        "energy": 94.609702,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.154334,
          25.908091,
          25.273524,
          24.823646
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}