{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6dd16cd-2142-4841-892f-7bb26c985493", "symbol": "WAK", "name": "WA Kaolin Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.236, "architecture_energy": 55.063, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 64.719, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.24, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 38.13, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006, 0.005827, 0.007221, 0.009999 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.014283, "distance_from_trend": -0.57993, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.051429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.883335, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -75.769136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.76, "excess_performance": -0.823706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.57993, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379884, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.883335, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.757691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.76, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.048332, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.048332, "dry_up": 1.198722, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.269231, "annualized_volatility": 1.203605, "from_high_reference": -0.87234, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.014283, "fair_value_reference": 0.051429, "structural_low": 0.0045, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.475, "median_excess_return": -0.038651, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.097269, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.52, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.223268, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.104167, "worst_return": -0.652778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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"2023-08-04", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.607692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152542, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163265, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 1931880, "typical_volume": 618066.65, "trend": 0.01625, "fair_value": 0.054038, "relative_strength": -76.49325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.450631, "energy": 66.796147, "activity_lines": [ 0.0057, 0.006082, 0.008557, 0.011854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 1357016, "typical_volume": 685917.45, "trend": 0.01555, "fair_value": 0.053179, "relative_strength": -75.797261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.123584, "energy": 64.003068, "activity_lines": [ 0.005867, 0.0059, 0.008021, 0.011192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 685917.45, "trend": 0.01495, "fair_value": 0.052288, "relative_strength": -75.715019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.594148, "energy": 57.658603, "activity_lines": [ 0.005967, 0.005836, 0.007576, 0.010576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 685917.45, "trend": 0.014283, "fair_value": 0.051429, "relative_strength": -75.769136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.235754, "energy": 55.062769, "activity_lines": [ 0.006, 0.005827, 0.007221, 0.009999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }