{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6e5a92d-2bad-43fe-8b0f-e5e99f6adfa1", "symbol": "002591", "name": "Jiangxi Hengda Hi-Tech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.661, "architecture_energy": 69.313, "architecture_maturity": 19.703, "architecture_confidence": 86.977, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.52, "rotation_up": 11.48, "upward_expansion": 15.11, "deceleration": 39.5, "rotation_down": 70.13, "downward_expansion": 88.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.826667, 6.052727, 6.714619, 6.932301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.12, "trend_reference": 7.168667, "distance_from_trend": -0.146285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.866538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.866952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21134, "excess_performance": -0.21874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030781, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.461917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215032, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21134, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.562619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50180231, "relative_activity": 0.791454, "balance": 0.562619, "dry_up": 0.975724, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119281, "annualized_volatility": 0.458478, "from_high_reference": -0.355789, "from_low_reference": 0.236364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.168667, "fair_value_reference": 5.866538, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.043653, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.034685, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.475645, "worst_return": -0.181624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.221035, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.121603, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.363868, "worst_return": -0.165605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.126984, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.179442, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.358607, "worst_return": -0.034694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041594, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067769, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147497, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.255023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 73842286, "typical_volume": 64217510.6, "trend": 7.291333, "fair_value": 5.87391, "relative_strength": -21.934706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.575868, "energy": 79.724849, "activity_lines": [ 5.816667, 6.314364, 6.932048, 7.102409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.77, "volume": 51341800, "typical_volume": 63477376.55, "trend": 7.235333, "fair_value": 5.869038, "relative_strength": -14.906424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.475673, "energy": 75.355411, "activity_lines": [ 5.744667, 6.125636, 6.802524, 7.004258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.12, "volume": 50180231, "typical_volume": 63402612.45, "trend": 7.168667, "fair_value": 5.866538, "relative_strength": -13.866952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.661416, "energy": 69.313305, "activity_lines": [ 5.826667, 6.052727, 6.714619, 6.932301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }