{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6e8d7c1-b61e-467d-890a-61604bb2bb6f", "symbol": "3031", "name": "Bright LED Electronics Corp.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.588, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.66, "architecture_energy": 54.355, "architecture_maturity": 10.585, "architecture_confidence": 74.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.93, "rotation_up": 16.99, "upward_expansion": 28.83, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 67.23, "downward_expansion": 53.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.74, 24.784532, 26.723157, 26.362306 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.0, "trend_reference": 25.063142, "distance_from_trend": -0.082318, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.36118, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187944, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.341856, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.20467, "excess_performance": -0.236702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082318, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10578, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187944, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212152, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.20467, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.994129, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2079444, "relative_activity": 0.107272, "balance": 1.994129, "dry_up": 0.199355, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164575, "annualized_volatility": 0.632347, "from_high_reference": -0.35108, "from_low_reference": 0.382237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.063142, "fair_value_reference": 19.36118, "structural_low": 17.890077, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.043135, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10089, "worst_return": -0.01462, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.089789, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.096491, "worst_return": 0.083086, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.23893, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033127, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.299497, "worst_return": 0.178363, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"fair_value": 19.18791, "relative_strength": -14.011011, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.66796, "energy": 16.177005, "activity_lines": [ 28.418932, 28.734296, 28.598244, 26.927574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.549999, "volume": 3642359, "typical_volume": 21329643.75, "trend": 24.728206, "fair_value": 19.234743, "relative_strength": -21.075877, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.271515, "energy": 6.322282, "activity_lines": [ 26.75, 27.725163, 28.241865, 26.861871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.0, "volume": 6034842, "typical_volume": 21361427.4, "trend": 24.796603, "fair_value": 19.267763, "relative_strength": -28.319252, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.963837, "energy": 41.121959, "activity_lines": [ 24.456489, 26.330486, 27.621172, 26.621342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.700001, "volume": 3701222, "typical_volume": 20644877.8, "trend": 24.91846, "fair_value": 19.312807, "relative_strength": -24.071292, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.815467, "energy": 50.225316, "activity_lines": [ 23.214835, 25.453297, 27.160171, 26.486077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.0, "volume": 2079444, "typical_volume": 19384809.5, "trend": 25.063142, "fair_value": 19.36118, "relative_strength": -25.341856, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.660237, "energy": 54.355432, "activity_lines": [ 22.74, 24.784532, 26.723157, 26.362306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }