{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d6f47da2-0ef9-4c0c-9037-4fb37b8de8c3",
    "symbol": "PAPR",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - April",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 64.761,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 84.475,
    "architecture_energy": 70.67,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.538,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.38,
        "rotation_up": 59.86,
        "upward_expansion": 85.33,
        "deceleration": 63.2,
        "rotation_down": 27.96,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        41.655993
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 42.84,
    "trend_reference": 40.975017,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.045515,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 36.374119,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17776,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.361034,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.087862,
    "excess_performance": -0.037763,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045515,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.028469,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.17776,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002543,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04361,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00438,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.087862,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.48676,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 112225,
      "relative_activity": 0.259906,
      "balance": 3.48676,
      "dry_up": 0.313623,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.008133,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.040822,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000875,
      "from_low_reference": 0.134831
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 40.975017,
      "fair_value_reference": 36.374119,
      "structural_low": 39.29,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 51,
        "median_return": 0.007049,
        "positive_rate": 0.803922,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.803922,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00403,
        "regime_survival": 0.843137,
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        "worst_return": -0.050261,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.033391,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": -0.06128,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "sufficient": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "relative_strength": -2.836807,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 36.083831,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 153980,
        "typical_volume": 442419.8,
        "trend": 40.640263,
        "fair_value": 36.154793,
        "relative_strength": -2.24008,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.975145,
        "energy": 63.561504,
        "activity_lines": [
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          41.830185,
          41.311952
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 42.2526,
        "volume": 131886,
        "typical_volume": 438093.2,
        "trend": 40.74435,
        "fair_value": 36.224696,
        "relative_strength": -1.571527,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 63.635817,
        "energy": 63.072275,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.48,
        "volume": 143586,
        "typical_volume": 434516.95,
        "trend": 40.85535,
        "fair_value": 36.29835,
        "relative_strength": -1.982757,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.386391,
        "energy": 65.672561,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.348027,
          42.264789,
          42.020418,
          41.527951
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.84,
        "volume": 112225,
        "typical_volume": 431790.1,
        "trend": 40.975017,
        "fair_value": 36.374119,
        "relative_strength": -4.361034,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.47532,
        "energy": 70.670182,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}