{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6f8f02e-be14-49b5-8baf-79d3c060c0e2", "symbol": "6784", "name": "Tsky Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.62, "architecture_energy": 42.085, "architecture_maturity": 18.398, "architecture_confidence": 69.593, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.48, "rotation_up": 28.93, "upward_expansion": 16.27, "deceleration": 47.75, "rotation_down": 46.05, "downward_expansion": 53.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.673333, 20.990909, 23.117619, 23.574839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.0, "trend_reference": 23.17, "distance_from_trend": -0.179974, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.820513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.065071, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049724, "excess_performance": -0.391648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179974, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.429855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.320651, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351608, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049724, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.477756, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200785, "relative_activity": 0.232004, "balance": 0.477756, "dry_up": 0.818157, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156883, "annualized_volatility": 0.682408, "from_high_reference": -0.598733, "from_low_reference": 0.24183 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.17, "fair_value_reference": 20.820513, "structural_low": 17.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.033184, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.057006, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.06654, "worst_return": -0.192593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.045474, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.198013, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032319, "worst_return": -0.123267, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.100728, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.378327, "worst_return": -0.176871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.00688, 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21.893607, "activity_lines": [ 22.153333, 24.094545, 25.454048, 24.295914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.200001, "volume": 92333, "typical_volume": 887351.05, "trend": 22.538333, "fair_value": 21.027811, "relative_strength": -29.660036, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.386051, "energy": 34.520455, "activity_lines": [ 21.176667, 23.077273, 25.018571, 24.15086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 202439, "typical_volume": 893626.25, "trend": 22.678333, "fair_value": 20.979952, "relative_strength": -22.398665, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.993974, "energy": 41.964255, "activity_lines": [ 20.786666, 22.381818, 24.634048, 24.03871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.15, "volume": 1639249, "typical_volume": 959262.9, "trend": 22.883333, "fair_value": 20.949979, "relative_strength": -15.060012, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.628673, "energy": 40.667425, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 22.254545, 24.460952, 24.06914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.6, "volume": 122806, "typical_volume": 957220.15, "trend": 23.031667, "fair_value": 20.916026, "relative_strength": -19.215585, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.954054, "energy": 30.197746, "activity_lines": [ 21.593333, 21.947273, 24.131905, 23.986344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 869414, "typical_volume": 979429.1, "trend": 23.146667, "fair_value": 20.874038, "relative_strength": -23.563724, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.953015, "energy": 27.761583, "activity_lines": [ 21.443333, 21.576363, 23.71119, 23.842365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.0, "volume": 200785, "typical_volume": 865436.75, "trend": 23.17, "fair_value": 20.820513, "relative_strength": -32.065071, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.619808, "energy": 42.084939, "activity_lines": [ 20.673333, 20.990909, 23.117619, 23.574839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }