{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d6fef7ca-6774-47f5-8322-19c4c80db83b", "symbol": "ESK", "name": "Etherstack plc", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.43, "architecture_energy": 29.579, "architecture_maturity": 35.577, "architecture_confidence": 81.941, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.29, "rotation_up": 25.42, "upward_expansion": 8.08, "deceleration": 52.14, "rotation_down": 36.83, "downward_expansion": 67.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.522667, 0.523273, 0.531405, 0.541978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.53, "trend_reference": 0.552667, "distance_from_trend": -0.041013, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.363381, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.458523, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.75491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.009346, "excess_performance": -0.073051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041013, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053383, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.458523, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057637, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520128, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 298516, "relative_activity": 1.599942, "balance": 0.520128, "dry_up": 1.024673, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055515, "annualized_volatility": 0.387711, "from_high_reference": -0.353659, "from_low_reference": 0.492958 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.552667, "fair_value_reference": 0.363381, "structural_low": 0.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.00011, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.321429, "worst_return": -0.306122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014085, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.002592, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.091624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.182225, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.487179, "worst_return": -0.46087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.679245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.604938, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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0.521909, 0.545881, 0.553065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.53, "volume": 80905, "typical_volume": 224692.55, "trend": 0.559667, "fair_value": 0.359215, "relative_strength": -3.308973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.027991, "energy": 23.467762, "activity_lines": [ 0.527333, 0.521909, 0.543333, 0.551043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.53, "volume": 54889, "typical_volume": 175115.25, "trend": 0.558167, "fair_value": 0.360144, "relative_strength": -3.555915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.728987, "energy": 20.011299, "activity_lines": [ 0.53, 0.523273, 0.540905, 0.549129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.52, "volume": 125122, "typical_volume": 173179.8, "trend": 0.557167, "fair_value": 0.361106, "relative_strength": -5.226032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.115518, "energy": 21.681028, "activity_lines": [ 0.527333, 0.522818, 0.537714, 0.546667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.51, "volume": 286204, "typical_volume": 177600.55, "trend": 0.5555, "fair_value": 0.362292, "relative_strength": -9.301715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.669365, "energy": 32.07472, "activity_lines": [ 0.520667, 0.521091, 0.5335, 0.543624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.53, "volume": 298516, "typical_volume": 186579.3, "trend": 0.552667, "fair_value": 0.363381, "relative_strength": -8.75491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.429814, "energy": 29.578948, "activity_lines": [ 0.522667, 0.523273, 0.531405, 0.541978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }