{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d704d5d2-427d-4b6d-80be-501d0d8c0d5f", "symbol": "2498", "name": "HTC Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.442, "architecture_energy": 42.012, "architecture_maturity": 17.91, "architecture_confidence": 75.912, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.34, "rotation_up": 10.92, "upward_expansion": 16.45, "deceleration": 44.29, "rotation_down": 62.05, "downward_expansion": 75.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.433334, 41.619709, 42.385347, 42.299961 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.5, "trend_reference": 42.581362, "distance_from_trend": -0.04888, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.80619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.194548, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08817, "excess_performance": -0.529542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04888, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.411945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08817, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.362696, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15626599, "relative_activity": 0.348694, "balance": 1.362696, "dry_up": 0.454643, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098838, "annualized_volatility": 0.335142, "from_high_reference": -0.467605, "from_low_reference": 0.074271 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.581362, "fair_value_reference": 45.80619, "structural_low": 37.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.014542, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022692, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.723378, "worst_return": -0.118613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035379, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.018967, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.23623, "worst_return": -0.17053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.169708, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.009956, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.642938, "worst_return": -0.191225, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "down", "direction": -43.082613, "energy": 24.879027, "activity_lines": [ 41.643334, 42.698637, 42.75927, 42.64751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.900002, "volume": 18977823, "typical_volume": 45232381.75, "trend": 42.746524, "fair_value": 45.870609, "relative_strength": -40.608228, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.482415, "energy": 34.423631, "activity_lines": [ 40.786668, 42.060424, 42.540522, 42.444898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 40.5, "volume": 15626599, "typical_volume": 44814636.0, "trend": 42.581362, "fair_value": 45.80619, "relative_strength": -41.194548, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.441945, "energy": 42.012094, "activity_lines": [ 40.433334, 41.619709, 42.385347, 42.299961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }