{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d70a1757-b55b-4012-bb01-65975d036d0d", "symbol": "PBR", "name": "Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.516, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.556, "architecture_energy": 18.657, "architecture_maturity": 32.446, "architecture_confidence": 51.284, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.94, "rotation_up": 52.19, "upward_expansion": 32.61, "deceleration": 47.1, "rotation_down": 17.3, "downward_expansion": 21.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.464667, 17.900727, 18.353251, 18.424389 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.96, "trend_reference": 17.906219, "distance_from_trend": 0.003004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.322152, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.348131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.913791, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.22451, "excess_performance": 0.098885, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119642, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.348131, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.049138, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22451, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65693, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82445685, "relative_activity": 0.880288, "balance": 0.65693, "dry_up": 0.797871, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070043, "annualized_volatility": 0.360222, "from_high_reference": -0.186114, "from_low_reference": 0.622315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.906219, "fair_value_reference": 13.322152, "structural_low": 14.60791, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.060094, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030896, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.225615, "worst_return": -0.12532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007289, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.071918, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.448574, "worst_return": -0.237946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.288638, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.215677, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.476584, "worst_return": 0.075614, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.183225, "energy": 42.222559, "activity_lines": [ 17.119333, 17.400493, 18.42179, 18.17981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.77, "volume": 67657837, "typical_volume": 106324601.55, "trend": 17.443393, "fair_value": 13.218899, "relative_strength": 15.876339, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.607501, "energy": 15.517978, "activity_lines": [ 17.746667, 17.563874, 18.410854, 18.281263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.4, "volume": 74418910, "typical_volume": 97864416.2, "trend": 17.698148, "fair_value": 13.275417, "relative_strength": 17.81064, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.784743, "energy": 31.290949, "activity_lines": [ 18.449333, 17.860072, 18.453204, 18.407496 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.96, "volume": 82445685, "typical_volume": 93657600.75, "trend": 17.906219, "fair_value": 13.322152, "relative_strength": 4.913791, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.556357, "energy": 18.657357, "activity_lines": [ 18.464667, 17.900727, 18.353251, 18.424389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }