{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d70ad5ef-e59b-4d9a-b785-a6c10efb2ad8", "symbol": "000668", "name": "Rongfeng Holding Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.583, "architecture_energy": 23.685, "architecture_maturity": 72.665, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.04, "rotation_up": 21.07, "upward_expansion": 54.68, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 40.39, "downward_expansion": 23.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.047333, 19.894277, 19.403638, 18.286973 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.6, "trend_reference": 16.740429, "distance_from_trend": 0.170818, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.106813, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.939286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 38.973853, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.485974, "excess_performance": 0.478574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.170818, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.243778, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.939286, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013243, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.389739, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019146, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.485974, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.457541, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14217616, "relative_activity": 1.084371, "balance": 4.457541, "dry_up": 1.856935, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133712, "annualized_volatility": 0.543211, "from_high_reference": -0.15496, "from_low_reference": 1.465409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.740429, "fair_value_reference": 10.106813, "structural_low": 12.65, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015366, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.026932, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.165577, "worst_return": -0.121065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.077443, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.040293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.313725, "worst_return": -0.15486, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.313015, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.251215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.662309, "worst_return": -0.047941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.417857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043217, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", 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76.585813, "activity_lines": [ 21.771682, 20.663265, 18.587515, 17.173069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.219999, "volume": 14727229, "typical_volume": 10296045.6, "trend": 15.572429, "fair_value": 9.926429, "relative_strength": 57.29243, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.493508, "energy": 66.651861, "activity_lines": [ 22.024824, 21.123031, 19.080264, 17.624869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.540001, "volume": 19082104, "typical_volume": 10627001.6, "trend": 15.814096, "fair_value": 9.964506, "relative_strength": 34.828753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.212056, "energy": 41.636647, "activity_lines": [ 20.599556, 20.61607, 19.086726, 17.751809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.67, "volume": 29257497, "typical_volume": 11591807.35, "trend": 16.096429, "fair_value": 10.002967, "relative_strength": 33.702361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.872002, "energy": 20.824656, "activity_lines": [ 19.413197, 20.14729, 19.096665, 17.871545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.35, "volume": 34830851, "typical_volume": 12930766.55, "trend": 16.414429, "fair_value": 10.054441, "relative_strength": 46.429226, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.333913, "energy": 22.282293, "activity_lines": [ 19.082303, 20.011238, 19.25227, 18.081453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.6, "volume": 14217616, "typical_volume": 13111397.35, "trend": 16.740429, "fair_value": 10.106813, "relative_strength": 38.973853, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.582742, "energy": 23.684819, "activity_lines": [ 19.047333, 19.894277, 19.403638, 18.286973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }