{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d70bffde-8546-4c28-92a6-098efb9e1c05", "symbol": "9577", "name": "DAR ALMARKABAH For Renting Cars Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.658, "architecture_energy": 52.212, "architecture_maturity": 38.563, "architecture_confidence": 64.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.5, "rotation_up": 13.52, "upward_expansion": 9.21, "deceleration": 54.12, "rotation_down": 75.32, "downward_expansion": 77.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.044667, 1.146727, 1.159, 1.167054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.94, "trend_reference": 1.186, "distance_from_trend": -0.20742, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.102813, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.55298, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.8795, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.259843, "excess_performance": -0.228013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20742, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034726, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.55298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.298795, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053934, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.636607, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 887700, "relative_activity": 1.538372, "balance": 0.636607, "dry_up": 1.228646, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156301, "annualized_volatility": 0.527557, "from_high_reference": -0.673611, "from_low_reference": 0.032967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.186, "fair_value_reference": 2.102813, "structural_low": 0.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.596296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040816, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.55, "volume": 11517160, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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887700, "typical_volume": 577038.65, "trend": 1.186, "fair_value": 2.102813, "relative_strength": -29.8795, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.658473, "energy": 52.212154, "activity_lines": [ 1.044667, 1.146727, 1.159, 1.167054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }