{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d70d4e92-0b8c-4384-89c8-6afe89703aee", "symbol": "9CI", "name": "CapitaLand Investment Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.553, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.223, "architecture_energy": 19.974, "architecture_maturity": 74.878, "architecture_confidence": 85.181, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.25, "rotation_up": 35.32, "upward_expansion": 25.17, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 25.73, "downward_expansion": 61.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.605333, 2.568727, 2.589524, 2.652495 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.69, "trend_reference": 2.754667, "distance_from_trend": -0.023475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.653891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.013606, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.310375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137821, "excess_performance": -0.292656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015839, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.013606, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033875, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173104, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.437987, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70215800, "relative_activity": 1.758691, "balance": 1.437987, "dry_up": 1.623974, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030884, "annualized_volatility": 0.176291, "from_high_reference": -0.154088, "from_low_reference": 0.093496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.754667, "fair_value_reference": 2.653891, "structural_low": 2.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.007812, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.001314, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.059055, "worst_return": -0.084459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.059006, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008962, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.048583, "worst_return": -0.118812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.091006, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080253, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.165484, "worst_return": -0.124277, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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2.54, "volume": 41434100, "typical_volume": 37656742.65, "trend": 2.777333, "fair_value": 2.664975, "relative_strength": -20.781017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.990298, "energy": 63.266642, "activity_lines": [ 2.526667, 2.540545, 2.61981, 2.700452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.49, "volume": 47926100, "typical_volume": 37708407.65, "trend": 2.770667, "fair_value": 2.661231, "relative_strength": -22.385712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.896697, "energy": 63.859505, "activity_lines": [ 2.512, 2.527818, 2.600238, 2.681914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.49, "volume": 45655800, "typical_volume": 36522497.65, "trend": 2.764, "fair_value": 2.657429, "relative_strength": -22.919256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.967195, "energy": 62.406651, "activity_lines": [ 2.502, 2.517818, 2.583381, 2.663806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.66, "volume": 95551150, "typical_volume": 38837690.15, "trend": 2.761333, "fair_value": 2.655242, "relative_strength": -17.719086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.535052, "energy": 36.553778, "activity_lines": [ 2.553333, 2.540909, 2.584619, 2.657097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.69, "volume": 70215800, "typical_volume": 39925040.15, "trend": 2.754667, "fair_value": 2.653891, "relative_strength": -17.310375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.222958, "energy": 19.974231, "activity_lines": [ 2.605333, 2.568727, 2.589524, 2.652495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }