{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d71897c2-f92b-4167-a707-92bf687ff9e7", "symbol": "ECO-B", "name": "EcoRub AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.601, "architecture_energy": 35.137, "architecture_maturity": 66.789, "architecture_confidence": 88.315, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.78, "rotation_up": 23.81, "upward_expansion": 4.39, "deceleration": 59.27, "rotation_down": 46.92, "downward_expansion": 77.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.06352, 0.064255, 0.06727, 0.070345 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0658, "trend_reference": 0.076083, "distance_from_trend": -0.135159, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.118259, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.443595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.69348, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.320248, "excess_performance": -0.381742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114727, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.443595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.320248, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455887, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1442887, "relative_activity": 0.999057, "balance": 0.455887, "dry_up": 1.418482, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128829, "annualized_volatility": 0.509822, "from_high_reference": -0.53, "from_low_reference": 0.280156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.076083, "fair_value_reference": 0.118259, "structural_low": 0.0564, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.034652, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.051855, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.598086, "worst_return": -0.261422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.119746, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.139031, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.402582, "worst_return": -0.276315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.138871, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.183354, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.292135, "worst_return": -0.44375, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.069711, 0.073594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.061, "volume": 2586226, "typical_volume": 1549282.6, "trend": 0.07904, "fair_value": 0.120444, "relative_strength": -31.609061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.878225, "energy": 46.778175, "activity_lines": [ 0.063827, 0.065658, 0.068652, 0.072338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.06, "volume": 1498576, "typical_volume": 1566928.5, "trend": 0.077657, "fair_value": 0.119432, "relative_strength": -33.157223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.528621, "energy": 46.780324, "activity_lines": [ 0.06264, 0.064309, 0.067638, 0.07111 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0658, "volume": 1442887, "typical_volume": 1444248.4, "trend": 0.076083, "fair_value": 0.118259, "relative_strength": -27.69348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.601197, "energy": 35.136951, "activity_lines": [ 0.06352, 0.064255, 0.06727, 0.070345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }