{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d71d16b7-6649-4943-8b65-649072a2408d", "symbol": "MFLX", "name": "FIRST TRUST FLEXIBLE MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.238, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.591, "architecture_energy": 13.491, "architecture_maturity": 63.342, "architecture_confidence": 71.303, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.12, "rotation_up": 16.01, "upward_expansion": 26.63, "deceleration": 74.17, "rotation_down": 52.96, "downward_expansion": 28.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.009756, 17.105483, 17.102032, 17.068752 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.98, "trend_reference": 17.022034, "distance_from_trend": -0.002469, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.00983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.755186, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.004135, "excess_performance": -0.183319, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002469, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009314, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060598, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019531, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02294, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004135, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.463479, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19778, "relative_activity": 0.576559, "balance": 1.463479, "dry_up": 0.777231, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017156, "annualized_volatility": 0.054375, "from_high_reference": -0.050675, "from_low_reference": 0.07648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.022034, "fair_value_reference": 16.00983, "structural_low": 16.522598, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.001029, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.003949, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.017317, "worst_return": -0.030469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009064, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.065259, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.037677, "worst_return": -0.032412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012438, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.078406, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.019718, "worst_return": -0.023641, "sufficient": true 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15.965047, "relative_strength": -7.784844, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.240912, "energy": 35.267956, "activity_lines": [ 17.251592, 17.222105, 17.129862, 17.078487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.985, "volume": 63749, "typical_volume": 34030.4, "trend": 17.009859, "fair_value": 15.978341, "relative_strength": -7.284819, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.498929, "energy": 15.887977, "activity_lines": [ 17.160778, 17.188811, 17.122802, 17.077533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.91, "volume": 21318, "typical_volume": 33928.05, "trend": 17.016231, "fair_value": 15.99356, "relative_strength": -7.925168, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.067694, "energy": 12.896651, "activity_lines": [ 17.061813, 17.140326, 17.108661, 17.07109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.98, "volume": 19778, "typical_volume": 34303.5, "trend": 17.022034, "fair_value": 16.00983, "relative_strength": -11.755186, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.590708, "energy": 13.490959, "activity_lines": [ 17.009756, 17.105483, 17.102032, 17.068752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }