{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d71d6611-6824-4e4e-a464-dd31ccdc9027", "symbol": "RIGN", "name": "Transocean Ltd.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.518, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.298, "architecture_energy": 69.747, "architecture_maturity": 25.811, "architecture_confidence": 77.487, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.26, "rotation_up": 22.22, "upward_expansion": 15.98, "deceleration": 42.6, "rotation_down": 56.51, "downward_expansion": 86.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.334001, 91.021454, 98.399809, 101.654537 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 89.800003, "trend_reference": 102.254333, "distance_from_trend": -0.121798, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.693654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.227855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062722, "excess_performance": 0.117389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060213, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012279, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.44337, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062722, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.639871, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 213, "relative_activity": 0.020559, "balance": 5.639871, "dry_up": 0.005357, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058969, "annualized_volatility": 0.493716, "from_high_reference": -0.309231, "from_low_reference": 0.698827 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.254333, "fair_value_reference": 88.693654, "structural_low": 84.989998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036378, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.028535, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.093264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023956, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.03159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26943, "worst_return": -0.257697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071416, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051296, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.341538, "worst_return": -0.336609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.312073, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.308106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.242604, 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11.092795, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -20.954008, "energy": 36.606911, "activity_lines": [ 103.032, 108.433273, 110.452667, 106.398108 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 93.379997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15514.2, "trend": 99.754, "fair_value": 90.651154, "relative_strength": 9.059267, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.005154, "energy": 50.046326, "activity_lines": [ 98.259999, 105.418545, 108.911952, 106.015677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 84.989998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15452.6, "trend": 99.883667, "fair_value": 90.346603, "relative_strength": -1.136834, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.547148, "energy": 77.931339, "activity_lines": [ 93.031332, 101.154181, 106.529904, 105.063161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 89.669998, "volume": 71, "typical_volume": 10451.75, "trend": 100.276333, "fair_value": 90.056026, "relative_strength": 4.42329, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.717279, "energy": 73.826392, "activity_lines": [ 90.829998, 98.104544, 104.665047, 104.404215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 89.669998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10443.0, "trend": 100.669, "fair_value": 89.765449, "relative_strength": 3.462187, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.626391, "energy": 77.080588, "activity_lines": [ 89.583998, 95.333635, 102.894666, 103.719935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.0, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 10359.1, "trend": 101.311667, "fair_value": 89.419295, "relative_strength": 4.583109, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.909635, "energy": 72.708541, "activity_lines": [ 89.736665, 93.36509, 101.34519, 103.096129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10351.35, "trend": 101.833, "fair_value": 89.060321, "relative_strength": 3.137013, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.940184, "energy": 52.286862, "activity_lines": [ 90.155999, 91.961635, 99.880952, 102.43086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 89.800003, "volume": 213, "typical_volume": 10360.5, "trend": 102.254333, "fair_value": 88.693654, "relative_strength": 1.227855, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.297822, "energy": 69.746644, "activity_lines": [ 90.334001, 91.021454, 98.399809, 101.654537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }