{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7230e12-74fd-4514-9ea8-cb1f7c4663f8", "symbol": "JPHE", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi JPX-Nikkei 400", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.109, "architecture_energy": 42.561, "architecture_maturity": 56.648, "architecture_confidence": 78.205, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.69, "rotation_up": 45.23, "upward_expansion": 74.79, "deceleration": 88.6, "rotation_down": 28.65, "downward_expansion": 10.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 455.185333, 455.128344, 448.955986, 441.051104 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 464.640015, "trend_reference": 431.121118, "distance_from_trend": 0.077748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 321.363749, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445838, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.20596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109311, "excess_performance": 0.055999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062527, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.445838, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001359, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08206, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094226, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109311, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.502866, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1012, "relative_activity": 1.304376, "balance": 1.502866, "dry_up": 1.540568, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027845, "annualized_volatility": 0.195671, "from_high_reference": -0.004094, "from_low_reference": 0.388519 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 431.121118, "fair_value_reference": 321.363749, "structural_low": 389.175812, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.030124, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022004, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.075706, "worst_return": -0.03527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051156, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.002302, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.137599, "worst_return": -0.075226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074507, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.02532, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218365, "worst_return": -0.041467, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 315.693175, "relative_strength": 14.346678, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.768859, "energy": 82.854969, "activity_lines": [ 458.547388, 453.40525, 441.78268, 433.969092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 445.48999, "volume": 1198, "typical_volume": 714.6, "trend": 424.312281, "fair_value": 317.07042, "relative_strength": 9.863868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.543322, "energy": 53.249413, "activity_lines": [ 454.915997, 452.7594, 443.054986, 435.471482 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 455.660004, "volume": 872, "typical_volume": 720.55, "trend": 426.859618, "fair_value": 318.488036, "relative_strength": 11.339227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.346733, "energy": 50.026996, "activity_lines": [ 454.584666, 453.81312, 445.263725, 437.493915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 446.359985, "volume": 1699, "typical_volume": 771.05, "trend": 429.003958, "fair_value": 319.876259, "relative_strength": 6.874751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.860825, "energy": 34.344858, "activity_lines": [ 451.599994, 452.863521, 446.339307, 438.752004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 464.640015, "volume": 1012, "typical_volume": 775.85, "trend": 431.121118, "fair_value": 321.363749, "relative_strength": 8.20596, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.109, "energy": 42.560897, "activity_lines": [ 455.185333, 455.128344, 448.955986, 441.051104 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }