{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7260264-345b-448c-bddb-26681a147574", "symbol": "EX12", "name": "iShares EURO STOXX Select Dividend 30 UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.456, "architecture_energy": 66.938, "architecture_maturity": 85.434, "architecture_confidence": 67.985, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.99, "rotation_up": 63.04, "upward_expansion": 84.31, "deceleration": 60.1, "rotation_down": 23.2, "downward_expansion": 10.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.775, 23.605546, 23.256572, 22.864032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.195, "trend_reference": 22.401667, "distance_from_trend": 0.080054, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.235115, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326836, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.588939, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100773, "excess_performance": -0.073473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080054, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326836, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0507, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085889, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000437, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100773, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.443999, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2470, "relative_activity": 0.53124, "balance": 0.443999, "dry_up": 1.95021, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01871, "annualized_volatility": 0.142121, "from_high_reference": -0.00309, "from_low_reference": 0.231423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.401667, "fair_value_reference": 18.235115, "structural_low": 20.09, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.005193, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.009276, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.125982, "worst_return": -0.076399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003867, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026676, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.148304, "worst_return": -0.085335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032285, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022818, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.21462, "worst_return": -0.198694, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002924, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060153, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022386, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.157933, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.928, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.7, "trend": 15.6832, "fair_value": 16.713487, "relative_strength": -3.64048, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -9.444929, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.601264, "energy": 54.66574, "activity_lines": [ 23.418667, 23.356273, 22.99131, 22.64214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.795, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 5019.85, "trend": 22.312333, "fair_value": 18.177532, "relative_strength": -7.685615, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.236746, "energy": 58.616898, "activity_lines": [ 23.555667, 23.451727, 23.111191, 22.74257 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.195, "volume": 2470, "typical_volume": 4649.5, "trend": 22.401667, "fair_value": 18.235115, "relative_strength": -8.588939, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.456356, "energy": 66.938298, "activity_lines": [ 23.775, 23.605546, 23.256572, 22.864032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }