{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d729af6b-c5a9-4187-8f74-f332bd6620c6", "symbol": "301052", "name": "GUOMAI Culture & Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.853, "architecture_energy": 55.91, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.033, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 28.49, "upward_expansion": 10.03, "deceleration": 60.91, "rotation_down": 51.02, "downward_expansion": 83.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.131334, 23.190182, 25.549523, 28.103808 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.540001, "trend_reference": 31.861762, "distance_from_trend": -0.229798, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.908853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276295, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.381353, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.381984, "excess_performance": -0.389383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.229798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276295, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.443814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037776, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.381984, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468331, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29406726, "relative_activity": 1.906945, "balance": 0.468331, "dry_up": 1.490931, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110181, "annualized_volatility": 0.526452, "from_high_reference": -0.748166, "from_low_reference": 0.238143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.861762, "fair_value_reference": 33.908853, "structural_low": 19.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.039024, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.009752, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.603638, "worst_return": -0.192006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.094615, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020572, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.500259, "worst_return": -0.241086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.177411, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.103764, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.013187, "worst_return": -0.38777, "sufficient": false }, 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"direction": -74.404526, "energy": 87.042138, "activity_lines": [ 23.374, 25.012546, 28.107068, 30.780702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.860001, "volume": 19166763, "typical_volume": 15438857.8, "trend": 33.407599, "fair_value": 34.153931, "relative_strength": -51.154422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.720935, "energy": 78.959549, "activity_lines": [ 22.719334, 24.112728, 27.259386, 30.001183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.59, "volume": 17745621, "typical_volume": 14910900.65, "trend": 32.805656, "fair_value": 34.050661, "relative_strength": -53.450438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.659538, "energy": 73.705318, "activity_lines": [ 21.894, 23.200546, 26.386688, 29.174241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.99, "volume": 25646623, "typical_volume": 15162625.25, "trend": 32.316047, "fair_value": 33.970323, "relative_strength": -44.106681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.167667, "energy": 63.71735, "activity_lines": [ 22.480667, 23.094728, 25.916794, 28.605489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.540001, "volume": 29406726, "typical_volume": 15420856.75, "trend": 31.861762, "fair_value": 33.908853, "relative_strength": -44.381353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.852585, "energy": 55.910292, "activity_lines": [ 23.131334, 23.190182, 25.549523, 28.103808 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }