{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "d72c947c-8fbc-43a2-b37f-bfa29b15fa81",
    "symbol": "AMS2",
    "name": "AMS OSRAM AG",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 33.391,
    "architecture_energy": 22.537,
    "architecture_maturity": 87.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 94.797,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 46.41,
        "rotation_up": 25.83,
        "upward_expansion": 56.54,
        "deceleration": 88.19,
        "rotation_down": 32.37,
        "downward_expansion": 17.87
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        18.059999,
        18.794545,
        18.756238,
        16.976365
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 19.299999,
    "trend_reference": 14.540667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.327312,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 13.43804,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.436221,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 26.206539,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 1.120879,
    "excess_performance": 0.946632,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.327312,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.308477,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.436221,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.2068,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.262065,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.2105,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.120879,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.408445,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 39037,
      "relative_activity": 0.945613,
      "balance": 1.408445,
      "dry_up": 0.840108,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.178756,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.825137,
      "from_high_reference": -0.303249,
      "from_low_reference": 1.662069
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.540667,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.43804,
      "structural_low": 8.23,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.080543,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.073022,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.060071,
        "worst_return": -0.21789,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.164286,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.137491,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.007789,
        "worst_return": -0.260949,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.148723,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.362061,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.111822,
        "worst_return": -0.522,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.376675,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.458035,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.095714,
        "worst_return": -0.657636,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.192308,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.178571,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.112676,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.226852,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.440945,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.202198,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.127737,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.083882,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.004938,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.157178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.205788,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.057143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.060439,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.114679,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 14962.65,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 13.2,
        "volume": 13660,
        "typical_volume": 45222.45,
        "trend": 9.926,
        "fair_value": 14.898633,
        "relative_strength": 9.735295,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.910749,
        "energy": 88.343675,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 48602.35,
        "trend": 10.127333,
        "fair_value": 14.803716,
        "relative_strength": 47.256567,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 97.611008,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 20.1,
        "volume": 85915,
        "typical_volume": 51562.3,
        "trend": 10.397333,
        "fair_value": 14.704052,
        "relative_strength": 60.91985,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 54079.2,
        "trend": 10.787333,
        "fair_value": 14.633306,
        "relative_strength": 87.470265,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 19.299999,
        "volume": 18822,
        "typical_volume": 50997.8,
        "trend": 11.396,
        "fair_value": 14.405997,
        "relative_strength": 42.426327,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 47363.2,
        "trend": 11.688,
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        "relative_strength": 41.441484,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 19.299999,
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        "typical_volume": 44791.0,
        "trend": 12.436333,
        "fair_value": 14.102143,
        "relative_strength": 32.213886,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.081747,
        "energy": 45.377773,
        "activity_lines": [
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          16.946762,
          14.868559
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 21.799999,
        "volume": 8871,
        "typical_volume": 40624.25,
        "trend": 12.887667,
        "fair_value": 14.049938,
        "relative_strength": 45.176512,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.17619,
        "energy": 48.694429,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 20.5,
        "volume": 17846,
        "typical_volume": 39815.6,
        "trend": 13.299667,
        "fair_value": 13.965026,
        "relative_strength": 37.926959,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.890763,
        "energy": 41.977583,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.566666,
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          18.179571,
          15.963785
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 17.35,
        "volume": 37910,
        "typical_volume": 39919.3,
        "trend": 13.608667,
        "fair_value": 13.851457,
        "relative_strength": 19.195326,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.979378,
        "energy": 31.344242,
        "activity_lines": [
          19.55,
          20.021818,
          18.351238,
          16.225097
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 17.0,
        "volume": 29821,
        "typical_volume": 39851.8,
        "trend": 13.903667,
        "fair_value": 13.678094,
        "relative_strength": 15.09257,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.938424,
        "energy": 23.148175,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.586666,
          19.388182,
          18.450762,
          16.443892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.049999,
        "volume": 31958,
        "typical_volume": 40405.6,
        "trend": 14.193,
        "fair_value": 13.543645,
        "relative_strength": 15.292963,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.892419,
        "energy": 20.48085,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.873333,
          18.82,
          18.515619,
          16.646882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 19.299999,
        "volume": 39037,
        "typical_volume": 41282.2,
        "trend": 14.540667,
        "fair_value": 13.43804,
        "relative_strength": 26.206539,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.391311,
        "energy": 22.537323,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.059999,
          18.794545,
          18.756238,
          16.976365
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}