{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7326c2b-6c6f-4380-acc5-c91484d6752b", "symbol": "SOXX", "name": "ISHARES SEMICONDUCTOR ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.164, "architecture_energy": 22.574, "architecture_maturity": 77.099, "architecture_confidence": 92.739, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.4, "rotation_up": 19.27, "upward_expansion": 52.93, "deceleration": 93.96, "rotation_down": 32.38, "downward_expansion": 18.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 529.46, 548.630928, 540.10832, 502.183921 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 543.27, "trend_reference": 452.258452, "distance_from_trend": 0.201238, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 264.649539, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.05279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 27.448043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.560491, "excess_performance": 0.373037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.201238, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237921, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.05279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190163, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.27448, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189013, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.560491, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.973649, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43767223, "relative_activity": 0.976573, "balance": 0.973649, "dry_up": 1.193041, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118698, "annualized_volatility": 0.451576, "from_high_reference": -0.171781, "from_low_reference": 1.301926 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 452.258452, "fair_value_reference": 264.649539, "structural_low": 307.116835, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.079502, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.028555, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.250218, "worst_return": -0.040456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065058, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.006521, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.923965, "worst_return": -0.08437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.106783, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040579, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151191, "worst_return": 0.062374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 42467353.35, "trend": 438.712748, "fair_value": 260.024428, "relative_strength": 33.407621, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.060529, "energy": 25.640206, "activity_lines": [ 545.926, 563.55429, 533.97511, 491.580689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 504.89, "volume": 77785747, "typical_volume": 44458155.3, "trend": 445.097167, "fair_value": 262.186407, "relative_strength": 25.827398, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.78279, "energy": 22.80742, "activity_lines": [ 528.461333, 552.310805, 535.628194, 495.850189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 543.27, "volume": 43767223, "typical_volume": 44817141.45, "trend": 452.258452, "fair_value": 264.649539, "relative_strength": 27.448043, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.164367, "energy": 22.573608, "activity_lines": [ 529.46, 548.630928, 540.10832, 502.183921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }