{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d735cab6-5aeb-45c1-8fed-b0cc314abf78", "symbol": "GEM", "name": "Green Minerals AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.508, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.143, "architecture_energy": 15.102, "architecture_maturity": 41.008, "architecture_confidence": 80.038, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.41, "rotation_up": 25.23, "upward_expansion": 14.98, "deceleration": 40.74, "rotation_down": 30.99, "downward_expansion": 60.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.214333, 1.190727, 1.24181, 1.28786 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.38, "trend_reference": 1.338, "distance_from_trend": 0.03139, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.88385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.644682, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.15543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126531, "excess_performance": 0.001537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03139, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099697, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.644682, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01685, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251554, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148534, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126531, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.957519, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125212, "relative_activity": 0.840605, "balance": 0.957519, "dry_up": 0.457007, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17893, "annualized_volatility": 0.625643, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.38 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.338, "fair_value_reference": 3.88385, "structural_low": 1.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.035742, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.02521, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.713693, "worst_return": -0.464615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.061224, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.115566, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.425532, "worst_return": -0.669231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.344304, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.534492, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.216931, "worst_return": -0.623077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -54.413355, "energy": 45.488777, "activity_lines": [ 1.270333, 1.327636, 1.378286, 1.395559 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1.2, "volume": 5825, "typical_volume": 184981.85, "trend": 1.4215, "fair_value": 4.043466, "relative_strength": -43.319196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.554646, "energy": 40.637718, "activity_lines": [ 1.247667, 1.293636, 1.360429, 1.379946 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.09, "volume": 15641, "typical_volume": 173981.8, "trend": 1.392, "fair_value": 4.020389, "relative_strength": -45.402678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.842139, "energy": 52.721401, "activity_lines": [ 1.194333, 1.246455, 1.333381, 1.358559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.24, "volume": 28891, "typical_volume": 169320.2, "trend": 1.382667, "fair_value": 3.996607, "relative_strength": -37.094725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.12466, "energy": 44.27505, "activity_lines": [ 1.198333, 1.233909, 1.321262, 1.348753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.15, "volume": 54947, "typical_volume": 166964.75, "trend": 1.372167, "fair_value": 3.971799, "relative_strength": -39.658125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.525274, "energy": 48.159956, "activity_lines": [ 1.176, 1.210455, 1.301048, 1.333742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.01, "volume": 57789, "typical_volume": 163293.8, "trend": 1.3575, "fair_value": 3.946222, "relative_strength": -46.441547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.536129, "energy": 56.795943, "activity_lines": [ 1.116667, 1.168273, 1.268667, 1.310376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.135, "volume": 45987, "typical_volume": 152981.65, "trend": 1.348833, "fair_value": 3.923434, "relative_strength": -40.136604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.172499, "energy": 38.254634, "activity_lines": [ 1.115667, 1.155909, 1.24931, 1.296022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.185, "volume": 43305, "typical_volume": 152730.5, "trend": 1.342667, "fair_value": 3.901991, "relative_strength": -36.581601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.181554, "energy": 32.878134, "activity_lines": [ 1.135667, 1.155455, 1.235976, 1.285452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.38, "volume": 125212, "typical_volume": 148954.55, "trend": 1.338, "fair_value": 3.88385, "relative_strength": -25.15543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.142717, "energy": 15.10243, "activity_lines": [ 1.214333, 1.190727, 1.24181, 1.28786 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }