{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d736086e-39bf-4fa5-9732-b0f0a751d4f3", "symbol": "600502", "name": "Anhui Construction Engineering Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.5, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.283, "architecture_energy": 25.915, "architecture_maturity": 37.255, "architecture_confidence": 80.774, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.63, "rotation_up": 25.56, "upward_expansion": 15.31, "deceleration": 44.92, "rotation_down": 32.39, "downward_expansion": 62.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.603333, 4.562747, 4.728538, 4.805303 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.55, "trend_reference": 4.839634, "distance_from_trend": -0.059846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.435556, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.685003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027907, "excess_performance": 0.015296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025802, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03685, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040152, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.698578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 154818661, "relative_activity": 0.837716, "balance": 0.698578, "dry_up": 0.8301, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060422, "annualized_volatility": 0.312769, "from_high_reference": -0.264943, "from_low_reference": 0.04119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.839634, "fair_value_reference": 4.435556, "structural_low": 4.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.014706, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.003873, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.186893, "worst_return": -0.109022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.09518, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.005071, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.249517, "worst_return": -0.099804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055902, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.057102, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.383298, "worst_return": -0.09115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.423163, "energy": 55.038183, "activity_lines": [ 4.5, 4.574414, 4.812727, 4.847289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.53, "volume": 155145632, "typical_volume": 182340624.65, "trend": 4.834147, "fair_value": 4.434711, "relative_strength": -1.38007, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.828122, "energy": 51.280698, "activity_lines": [ 4.514667, 4.547259, 4.774854, 4.827574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.78, "volume": 146539811, "typical_volume": 182710600.2, "trend": 4.84105, "fair_value": 4.435759, "relative_strength": 3.735615, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.877914, "energy": 28.682669, "activity_lines": [ 4.61, 4.574736, 4.762125, 4.824081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.55, "volume": 154818661, "typical_volume": 184810359.75, "trend": 4.839634, "fair_value": 4.435556, "relative_strength": -3.685003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.282785, "energy": 25.914791, "activity_lines": [ 4.603333, 4.562747, 4.728538, 4.805303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }