{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d737cb60-056e-4fd5-a95a-b63d893427f4", "symbol": "ALCPB", "name": "CAPITAL B", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.136, "architecture_energy": 31.465, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.996, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.42, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 17.13, "deceleration": 46.03, "rotation_down": 29.94, "downward_expansion": 62.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.478767, 0.467224, 0.502642, 0.540103 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.4942, "trend_reference": 0.595207, "distance_from_trend": -0.1697, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.694294, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.540555, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.277485, "excess_performance": -0.330797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1697, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168009, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288198, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.435406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.167638, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277485, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.536869, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7589271, "relative_activity": 1.065069, "balance": 0.536869, "dry_up": 1.233262, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121408, "annualized_volatility": 0.680091, "from_high_reference": -0.80232, "from_low_reference": 0.29304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.595207, "fair_value_reference": 0.694294, "structural_low": 0.3822, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.044641, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.05471, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.413426, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.126467, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.128281, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.61, "worst_return": -0.597316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.312925, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.304976, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09969, "worst_return": -0.559732, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 0.689879, "relative_strength": -48.672684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.138532, "energy": 37.164101, "activity_lines": [ 0.470773, 0.465253, 0.517052, 0.557561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.46, "volume": 7091666, "typical_volume": 7522862.35, "trend": 0.6064, "fair_value": 0.691933, "relative_strength": -48.523224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.115819, "energy": 36.038332, "activity_lines": [ 0.47106, 0.461965, 0.507504, 0.547342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.4942, "volume": 7589271, "typical_volume": 7125614.0, "trend": 0.595207, "fair_value": 0.694294, "relative_strength": -43.540555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.136201, "energy": 31.464678, "activity_lines": [ 0.478767, 0.467224, 0.502642, 0.540103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }