{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d73d1c99-68ce-4e7b-889a-b1ae8932c26a", "symbol": "ITWN", "name": "iShares MSCI Taiwan UCITS ETF USD (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.999, "architecture_energy": 26.529, "architecture_maturity": 73.617, "architecture_confidence": 92.174, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.66, "rotation_up": 26.55, "upward_expansion": 59.89, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 30.18, "downward_expansion": 21.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 162.939336, 166.304911, 162.667381, 153.428839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 166.570007, "trend_reference": 140.837, "distance_from_trend": 0.182715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 91.561338, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.819218, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.432064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.498471, "excess_performance": 0.327579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.182715, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.819218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.184321, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.498471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.911477, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48620, "relative_activity": 1.291848, "balance": 0.911477, "dry_up": 1.160153, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067719, "annualized_volatility": 0.329589, "from_high_reference": -0.07255, "from_low_reference": 0.921954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 140.837, "fair_value_reference": 91.561338, "structural_low": 110.699997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02087, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.016079, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.249804, "worst_return": -0.051268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.034848, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.050863, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.548699, "worst_return": -0.118701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.117114, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.063936, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.651662, "worst_return": -0.095345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 163.220001, "volume": 38156, "typical_volume": 38265.7, "trend": 137.033, "fair_value": 90.247036, "relative_strength": 21.889707, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.367833, "energy": 45.237428, "activity_lines": [ 166.446668, 168.504728, 160.450809, 150.30658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 157.699997, "volume": 37868, "typical_volume": 37087.4, "trend": 138.842, "fair_value": 90.87248, "relative_strength": 16.233871, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.245339, "energy": 26.582256, "activity_lines": [ 162.834667, 166.582, 161.236952, 151.639935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 166.570007, "volume": 48620, "typical_volume": 37636.0, "trend": 140.837, "fair_value": 91.561338, "relative_strength": 18.432064, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.999259, "energy": 26.529423, "activity_lines": [ 162.939336, 166.304911, 162.667381, 153.428839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }