{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d73d90a2-dd31-4075-9cf5-4d2cf9341a02", "symbol": "CD8", "name": "Amundi MSCI EMU High Dividend UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.309, "architecture_energy": 92.292, "architecture_maturity": 40.252, "architecture_confidence": 79.002, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 84.46, "upward_expansion": 99.57, "deceleration": 39.17, "rotation_down": 10.76, "downward_expansion": 21.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 214.53333, 212.133634, 208.118332, 204.824838 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 216.149994, "trend_reference": 200.481666, "distance_from_trend": 0.078153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 169.737961, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273433, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.119264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110626, "excess_performance": 0.057314, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078153, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273433, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060519, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051193, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110626, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.968761, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15851, "relative_activity": 1.294794, "balance": 1.968761, "dry_up": 1.097218, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013812, "annualized_volatility": 0.121249, "from_high_reference": -0.006435, "from_low_reference": 0.255226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 200.481666, "fair_value_reference": 169.737961, "structural_low": 184.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.00902, "positive_rate": 0.605263, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": 0.00684, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.070792, "worst_return": -0.11717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.034317, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.029656, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.082198, "worst_return": -0.04959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050272, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.019232, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.129551, "worst_return": -0.126491, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 211.769999, 209.320908, 205.656333, 202.697096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 215.199997, "volume": 13232, "typical_volume": 12207.1, "trend": 199.601333, "fair_value": 169.278025, "relative_strength": 7.354768, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.207919, "energy": 91.523281, "activity_lines": [ 213.273332, 210.751817, 206.89738, 203.757182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 216.149994, "volume": 15851, "typical_volume": 12242.1, "trend": 200.481666, "fair_value": 169.737961, "relative_strength": 5.119264, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.308999, "energy": 92.292218, "activity_lines": [ 214.53333, 212.133634, 208.118332, 204.824838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }