{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d748762a-e267-4840-941e-3e082f2afde0", "symbol": "8329", "name": "Taiwan Television Enterprise Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.767, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.108, "architecture_energy": 28.636, "architecture_maturity": 36.956, "architecture_confidence": 71.837, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.63, "rotation_up": 50.26, "upward_expansion": 75.94, "deceleration": 55.47, "rotation_down": 17.48, "downward_expansion": 2.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.57, 10.526364, 10.44881, 10.391247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.7, "trend_reference": 10.318667, "distance_from_trend": 0.036956, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.991406, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07092, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.665776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04902, "excess_performance": -0.392352, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036956, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007852, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026787, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08944, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04902, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.437492, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 323936, "relative_activity": 1.387313, "balance": 2.437492, "dry_up": 0.875888, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049964, "annualized_volatility": 0.148553, "from_high_reference": -0.108333, "from_low_reference": 0.115746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.318667, "fair_value_reference": 9.991406, "structural_low": 9.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.005531, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.037213, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084291, "worst_return": -0.064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004336, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.096157, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.083266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.048398, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.09444, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.641318, "worst_return": -0.086933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 62000, "typical_volume": 301220.7, "trend": 10.315333, "fair_value": 9.907753, "relative_strength": -28.815652, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.977457, "energy": 31.047056, "activity_lines": [ 10.496667, 10.389091, 10.369048, 10.327462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.5, "volume": 162011, "typical_volume": 293752.3, "trend": 10.317, "fair_value": 9.928737, "relative_strength": -29.467554, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.778391, "energy": 35.448715, "activity_lines": [ 10.523333, 10.419091, 10.386667, 10.339376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.65, "volume": 126437, "typical_volume": 277368.75, "trend": 10.317, "fair_value": 9.950447, "relative_strength": -26.593056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.08554, "energy": 43.599123, "activity_lines": [ 10.576667, 10.47, 10.416429, 10.36086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.4, "volume": 205691, "typical_volume": 260166.9, "trend": 10.312, "fair_value": 9.970849, "relative_strength": -29.141583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.90815, "energy": 26.081185, "activity_lines": [ 10.516667, 10.472727, 10.419286, 10.366215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.7, "volume": 323936, "typical_volume": 233498.8, "trend": 10.318667, "fair_value": 9.991406, "relative_strength": -28.665776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.10811, "energy": 28.63628, "activity_lines": [ 10.57, 10.526364, 10.44881, 10.391247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }