{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d757fa9c-0daf-48f7-b5ef-4592c197aa8e", "symbol": "AEG", "name": "Active Energy Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.336, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.378, "architecture_energy": 41.605, "architecture_maturity": 24.108, "architecture_confidence": 70.83, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.94, "rotation_up": 16.59, "upward_expansion": 23.33, "deceleration": 50.28, "rotation_down": 56.39, "downward_expansion": 48.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000855, 0.000908, 0.000964, 0.000956 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.00078, "trend_reference": 0.000947, "distance_from_trend": -0.176346, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.006824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.885705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.837318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.16129, "excess_performance": -0.212526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054957, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.885705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018039, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070927, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.376705, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 176468782, "relative_activity": 0.445543, "balance": 0.376705, "dry_up": 0.404301, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.233728, "annualized_volatility": 0.961897, "from_high_reference": -0.675, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000947, "fair_value_reference": 0.006824, "structural_low": 0.00064, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.078256, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.083157, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.765625, "worst_return": -0.343756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.110222, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.126287, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.585366, "worst_return": -0.344828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.16129, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.212526, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.051724, "worst_return": -0.37931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.322438, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.489202, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.310345, "worst_return": -0.913793, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-05-26", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10219, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.251969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149485, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.986667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", 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0.001027, 0.000995, 0.000965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.00098, "volume": 76889179, "typical_volume": 411046405.3, "trend": 0.000924, "fair_value": 0.008805, "relative_strength": -11.888049, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.944271, "energy": 11.992323, "activity_lines": [ 0.00098, 0.001009, 0.000998, 0.000969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.00098, "volume": 127445133, "typical_volume": 393799691.65, "trend": 0.000931, "fair_value": 0.008417, "relative_strength": -7.957876, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.759324, "energy": 6.674685, "activity_lines": [ 0.000983, 0.000997, 0.001, 0.000973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.001, "volume": 132229220, "typical_volume": 394386958.3, "trend": 0.000939, "fair_value": 0.00803, "relative_strength": -5.797775, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.852031, "energy": 8.2341, "activity_lines": [ 0.00099, 0.000992, 0.001003, 0.000977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00093, "volume": 103369591, "typical_volume": 387576364.1, "trend": 0.000946, "fair_value": 0.007628, "relative_strength": -11.430067, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.32671, "energy": 6.829259, "activity_lines": [ 0.000965, 0.000977, 0.001, 0.000977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00079, "volume": 228467862, "typical_volume": 394557659.2, "trend": 0.000947, "fair_value": 0.007226, "relative_strength": -24.546098, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.293386, "energy": 28.252865, "activity_lines": [ 0.000907, 0.000941, 0.000983, 0.000967 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00078, "volume": 176468782, "typical_volume": 396075800.0, "trend": 0.000947, "fair_value": 0.006824, "relative_strength": -24.837318, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.377969, "energy": 41.604792, "activity_lines": [ 0.000855, 0.000908, 0.000964, 0.000956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }