{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d758ce85-8a8a-43cd-99e1-b29839e0d334", "symbol": "STCK", "name": "Stack Capital Group Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.27, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.06, "architecture_energy": 59.66, "architecture_maturity": 24.412, "architecture_confidence": 75.638, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.8, "rotation_up": 17.15, "upward_expansion": 19.98, "deceleration": 46.53, "rotation_down": 74.67, "downward_expansion": 63.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.118, 19.389454, 22.90319, 22.996451 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 17.780001, "trend_reference": 22.369, "distance_from_trend": -0.20515, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.896667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.378651, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.98052, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066176, "excess_performance": -0.186598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117761, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.378651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.145855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.780076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.623889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225700, "relative_activity": 0.699292, "balance": 0.623889, "dry_up": 0.740577, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186078, "annualized_volatility": 0.603972, "from_high_reference": -0.540806, "from_low_reference": 0.508058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.369, "fair_value_reference": 12.896667, "structural_low": 16.709999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.152383, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09374, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.194605, "worst_return": 0.11016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.475936, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.330289, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.475936, "worst_return": 0.475936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.419251, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.153729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.419251, "worst_return": 0.419251, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.673797, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.24527, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.673797, "worst_return": 1.673797, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062128, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114051, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.274866, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031783, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020347, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.461638, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010279, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052744, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.6, "volume": 11900, "typical_volume": 17170.0, "trend": 6.57, "fair_value": 7.830263, "relative_strength": 2.903962, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.464944, "energy": 13.551716, "activity_lines": [ 6.591333, 6.665818, 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"2026-06-26", "close": 20.43, "volume": 63900, "typical_volume": 304340.0, "trend": 21.596, "fair_value": 12.427692, "relative_strength": 3.642275, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.365898, "energy": 22.547717, "activity_lines": [ 23.925333, 26.847454, 26.025095, 24.219677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 20.25, "volume": 28300, "typical_volume": 302305.0, "trend": 21.821, "fair_value": 12.513462, "relative_strength": 1.643471, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.216691, "energy": 31.0994, "activity_lines": [ 21.99, 25.425818, 25.645524, 24.132839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.639999, "volume": 247700, "typical_volume": 311180.0, "trend": 22.030667, "fair_value": 12.601282, "relative_strength": 3.171285, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.240312, "energy": 41.527427, "activity_lines": [ 21.048, 24.236, 25.299333, 24.056645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.77, "volume": 236400, "typical_volume": 318155.0, "trend": 22.156333, "fair_value": 12.679936, "relative_strength": -6.202134, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.009049, "energy": 58.267133, "activity_lines": [ 20.046, 22.817454, 24.762571, 23.846279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.389999, "volume": 244800, "typical_volume": 323690.0, "trend": 22.252333, "fair_value": 12.756282, "relative_strength": -8.447282, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.23761, "energy": 63.614808, "activity_lines": [ 19.325333, 21.515272, 24.188524, 23.60329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.379999, "volume": 249200, "typical_volume": 325765.0, "trend": 22.313667, "fair_value": 12.825192, "relative_strength": -13.149408, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.474473, "energy": 63.255337, "activity_lines": [ 18.553333, 20.260545, 23.523333, 23.288946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.780001, "volume": 225700, "typical_volume": 322755.0, "trend": 22.369, "fair_value": 12.896667, "relative_strength": -13.98052, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.060389, "energy": 59.660079, "activity_lines": [ 18.118, 19.389454, 22.90319, 22.996451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }