{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7650c4a-ea15-4e4e-8f24-ee787d44a1f5", "symbol": "ITUB4", "name": "Ita\u00fa Unibanco Holding S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.975, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.012, "architecture_energy": 14.36, "architecture_maturity": 24.042, "architecture_confidence": 52.579, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.4, "rotation_up": 26.42, "upward_expansion": 18.74, "deceleration": 36.43, "rotation_down": 32.72, "downward_expansion": 57.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.976582, 42.004457, 41.620028, 42.047343 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.75, "trend_reference": 42.666896, "distance_from_trend": -0.044927, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.394171, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.95265, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.119662, "excess_performance": -0.062613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044927, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087227, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062728, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119662, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.713819, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121351500, "relative_activity": 1.229166, "balance": 0.713819, "dry_up": 0.926501, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046045, "annualized_volatility": 0.275081, "from_high_reference": -0.171415, "from_low_reference": 0.251979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.666896, "fair_value_reference": 30.394171, "structural_low": 38.208802, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030603, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.0044, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.127957, "worst_return": -0.131093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.069688, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.025931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113465, "worst_return": -0.005839, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.031401, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026782, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138866, "worst_return": -0.076063, "sufficient": 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103622050.0, "trend": 42.485829, "fair_value": 30.108103, "relative_strength": 1.34951, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.051322, "energy": 24.321258, "activity_lines": [ 42.579196, 41.796588, 41.639739, 42.1433 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.871754, "volume": 77225700, "typical_volume": 99391940.0, "trend": 42.623272, "fair_value": 30.257397, "relative_strength": 0.923748, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.556084, "energy": 23.362067, "activity_lines": [ 42.65318, 42.128216, 41.732999, 42.168199 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.75, "volume": 121351500, "typical_volume": 98726735.0, "trend": 42.666896, "fair_value": 30.394171, "relative_strength": -0.95265, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.011963, "energy": 14.359516, "activity_lines": [ 41.976582, 42.004457, 41.620028, 42.047343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }