{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7665862-b084-4a10-a04b-cc2f55ca571f", "symbol": "ISHP", "name": "FIRST TRUST S-NETWORK E-COMMERCE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.699, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 45.438, "architecture_energy": 55.368, "architecture_maturity": 8.164, "architecture_confidence": 73.377, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.39, "rotation_up": 69.74, "upward_expansion": 43.78, "deceleration": 24.28, "rotation_down": 16.83, "downward_expansion": 30.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.547433, 34.83868, 34.518439, 34.536502 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.869, "trend_reference": 35.044749, "distance_from_trend": 0.052055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.562626, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098514, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.853527, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007927, "excess_performance": -0.195381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052055, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043355, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098514, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032843, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104004, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.913683, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 255, "relative_activity": 0.34977, "balance": 0.913683, "dry_up": 1.102462, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027426, "annualized_volatility": 0.219448, "from_high_reference": -0.134348, "from_low_reference": 0.150226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.044749, "fair_value_reference": 33.562626, "structural_low": 32.0537, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.041948, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013585, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.138738, "worst_return": -0.135279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.05895, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063274, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.224854, "worst_return": -0.15942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039175, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.111258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.310009, "worst_return": -0.134952, "sufficient": true }, 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-29.607432, "energy": 22.761778, "activity_lines": [ 34.2806, 34.025142, 34.109081, 34.404459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.636, "volume": 754, "typical_volume": 769.55, "trend": 35.166309, "fair_value": 33.496564, "relative_strength": -13.02385, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.634101, "energy": 23.17548, "activity_lines": [ 34.802647, 34.33729, 34.258985, 34.426651 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.869, "volume": 255, "typical_volume": 729.05, "trend": 35.044749, "fair_value": 33.562626, "relative_strength": -13.853527, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.438265, "energy": 55.368424, "activity_lines": [ 35.547433, 34.83868, 34.518439, 34.536502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }