{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d76bb538-7d90-42e9-9125-55c7b26a2517", "symbol": "GRPN", "name": "Groupon Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.434, "architecture_energy": 56.431, "architecture_maturity": 34.078, "architecture_confidence": 86.844, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.07, "rotation_up": 64.21, "upward_expansion": 82.41, "deceleration": 56.74, "rotation_down": 16.96, "downward_expansion": 9.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.307333, 24.972, 21.905952, 19.556086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.03, "trend_reference": 17.112333, "distance_from_trend": 0.462688, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.56766, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.510775, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.427874, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.883371, "excess_performance": 0.695917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.462688, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127592, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.510775, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.345013, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.184279, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.494803, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.883371, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.608117, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9565034, "relative_activity": 1.070667, "balance": 1.608117, "dry_up": 0.889279, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162152, "annualized_volatility": 0.858316, "from_high_reference": -0.288516, "from_low_reference": 1.729553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.112333, "fair_value_reference": 16.56766, "structural_low": 9.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.034593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015029, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.369142, "worst_return": -0.410432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.190531, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.204186, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.132241, "worst_return": -0.381998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.31773, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.068059, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.371055, "worst_return": -0.229646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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19.466571, 17.69286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.81, "volume": 6949687, "typical_volume": 9324561.55, "trend": 16.485333, "fair_value": 16.341827, "relative_strength": 26.092863, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.688237, "energy": 84.047398, "activity_lines": [ 26.152, 23.443455, 20.319952, 18.311118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.58, "volume": 6208764, "typical_volume": 8983799.8, "trend": 16.827667, "fair_value": 16.468045, "relative_strength": 35.09548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.241065, "energy": 82.506852, "activity_lines": [ 26.820667, 24.518182, 21.277095, 19.026903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.03, "volume": 9565034, "typical_volume": 8933717.0, "trend": 17.112333, "fair_value": 16.56766, "relative_strength": 18.427874, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.434347, "energy": 56.431237, "activity_lines": [ 26.307333, 24.972, 21.905952, 19.556086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }