{ "ticker": { "uuid": "d7722889-97f2-4130-baa1-d23e72823f00", "symbol": "ZMID", "name": "BMO S&P US Mid Cap Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.71, "architecture_energy": 54.038, "architecture_maturity": 91.918, "architecture_confidence": 50.255, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.44, "rotation_up": 44.23, "upward_expansion": 68.79, "deceleration": 68.1, "rotation_down": 27.62, "downward_expansion": 21.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.226, 57.275024, 56.220221, 54.973815 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 57.990002, "trend_reference": 53.569664, "distance_from_trend": 0.082516, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.934916, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262438, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.169866, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.106936, "excess_performance": -0.013485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040076, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001699, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018689, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.106936, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167203, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1400, "relative_activity": 0.225989, "balance": 1.167203, "dry_up": 0.778854, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02038, "annualized_volatility": 0.137992, "from_high_reference": -0.004122, "from_low_reference": 0.260848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.569664, "fair_value_reference": 45.934916, "structural_low": 48.068742, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.011067, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.003953, "regime_survival": 0.694444, "best_return": 0.068127, "worst_return": -0.071654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.02006, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.027086, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.105103, "worst_return": -0.153359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043546, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.023718, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.156039, "worst_return": -0.083377, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 78.860739, "energy": 91.694111, "activity_lines": [ 57.525757, 56.40072, 54.605518, 53.590843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 57.389999, "volume": 3600, "typical_volume": 7120.0, "trend": 52.63659, "fair_value": 45.437151, "relative_strength": 1.347447, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.878564, "energy": 86.93891, "activity_lines": [ 57.623945, 56.751334, 55.00419, 53.913827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.669998, "volume": 7800, "typical_volume": 6850.0, "trend": 52.859719, "fair_value": 45.559291, "relative_strength": 0.323511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.772192, "energy": 78.706964, "activity_lines": [ 57.34157, 56.887986, 55.311991, 54.174047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.169998, "volume": 8000, "typical_volume": 7030.0, "trend": 53.10321, "fair_value": 45.683445, "relative_strength": 1.024399, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.061831, "energy": 61.624351, "activity_lines": [ 57.238065, 57.068623, 55.645024, 54.45213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.549999, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 6335.0, "trend": 53.350674, "fair_value": 45.804252, "relative_strength": 0.456746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.380553, "energy": 47.746623, "activity_lines": [ 56.951332, 57.061652, 55.882559, 54.674503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.990002, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 6195.0, "trend": 53.569664, "fair_value": 45.934916, "relative_strength": -0.169866, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.710452, "energy": 54.038025, "activity_lines": [ 57.226, 57.275024, 56.220221, 54.973815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }